what is a gigantic downswing in NL?

[benwharder]

I am currently in the throws of a 6 buyin downswing, being new to internet poker, and never having had such trouble playing live, does anyone else have trouble keeping their head on straight sitting in front of the computer and watching yourself get rivered and then make compounding mistakes, it seems like after a while, i start getting scared to play hands, cause it feels like, "well, I'm just gonna get bet off it when i miss the flop, and if i do hit, someone else hit better" is the best solution to take a couple days break? Thats what I've decided tentatively to do.

[beset7]

potential solutions that work for me:

take break (a couple days)
play shorter sessions
play at a lower limit for a few days
play a different game for a few days (for me it's LHE, Stud or Pot Limit Omaha).

But the most important thing I do is I set a "mistake limit" for each session. I'm somewhat indifferent to money to I've found that setting loss limits is hit or miss with me. What does work however is setting a mistake limit of two major mistakes (which could be 3 or 4 minor ones added up or two obvious errors). After that I'm done either for the day or a few hours or I relegate myself to play lower-limits or some limit form of poker. After doing this stuff for a while it's like my mind has gotten to the point where it doesn't want to go play 3/6 7stud or LHE or take a break so it tries harder not to make mistakes or tilt.

I tilt because of bad plays not because of losses, FWIW.

Things I try NOT to do:

Play short-handed
Force myself to play more hands
Take shots at bigger games

You might laugh but tilt prompts a lot of people to do these very things. One thing I've finally realized is that if I have to ask myself the question "Should I be playing X game right now?" The answer is always no. The goal is always to feel balanced, confident; like you have an edge and you are just waiting to push it. There is a time for taking shots and this ain't it.

[PokerCat69]

$550 was in my acount now I'm sitting at $239. Playing the 25L. Yikes!
Hope to get back on track today.

[kongo_totte]

I dropped 4 buy ins in 5 minutes yesterday 6-tableing. The most I was down yesterday was 7 buy-ins. I won back 4 though to end the night at -3 buy ins. Maybe 1/2-1 buy in was from tilt.

The worst "long term" downswing I have ever had was breaking even after 7k hands.

[poboy]

[ QUOTE ]

I'd say 10 buyins is a MAJOR downswing and 6-8 is big, uncomfortable and bound to happen .

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is this? I don't disagree with your statement, but why are downswings inevitable? I could see if the only reason we are winning is because of luck, but noone here believes that. We win because we generally play better than our opponents. So the only logical reason we could go on an extended downswing would be because we aren't playing better. Which would suggest that we can control if and when we encounter a downswing, but I know from experience this is not true. Also why is it so hard to snap out of a downswing once one starts. I'm currently in the midst of a downswing(more of a break-even swing) and cannot figure out why it's happening or how to end it. Any thoughts?

[Macquarie]

If we were to somehow play "perfectly" the graph of earnings would still show significant downswings and upswings. This is just due to variations in the quality of our cards - running slightly hot or running cold over a few thousand hands is just normal statistical variation in the random dealing. Call this luck if you like.

There is no way to end a downswing if you genuinely have been getting poor cards and continue to get poor cards. Most of the time I guess we exacerbate these downswings with poor play though, and we must try to eliminate that.

[beset7]

Well, I guess I should qualify my statement by saying that assuming one is trying to push all equity edges and play "optimal" poker, they are going to experience the odd large downswing, which I would say in a NLHE game w/ 100xBB stacks against loose passive opponents is probably around six buyins.

One of the problems here, however, is that NLHE is a game where the player can have a lot of control over the amount of variance they experience. So, if someone is basically set farming and getting all-in preflop w/ big pairs they might never drop more then a few buyins. So, they are "controlling their downswings" but they are also leaving money on the table.

I'm not a great math person or I'd get down and dirty. I did read Gambling Theory and Other Topics by MM and understanding just pieces of it helped me accept a little more variance in my play.

[GrunchCan]

[ QUOTE ]
but why are downswings inevitable?

[/ QUOTE ]

Think of it in this way.

Poker is like a chess game you play for $1, which is followd by a coinflip for $10. Even if your the greatest chess player in the universe, you wont be able to overcome the $10 coinflips for a long time. Sometimes you'll get clobbered time after time after time...

[tj68]

time after time after time after time after time after time.
six is a lot,but i can see someone getting to 8 or more.unfortunately for me that doesnt take too much imagination.
ive had 4-6 buy-in swings about 4 times over 40k.

[Reef]

[ QUOTE ]
4 buyins over 30K hands? Am I reading this right?

[/ QUOTE ]

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