problem with NL

[torsken]

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If we make the assumption that he'll only play back at you like this with a set, then you have 42.1% equity in the pot.

a b c d

303$ * 0.421 - 118$ = 9.5$

a = total pot size if you call
b = your chance of winning the pot if you call
c = how much it cost you to call
d = net EV (call)

If he holds the worst case scenario holding Ah8h it would turn into a roughly zero EV call.

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Is 118/303=39% the break even number?

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Yes

[Cased Heel]

This play is horrible.

I like a min-raise PF to build the pot just a bit.

I'm probably smooth-calling the flop bet to see a free card. You've still got 2 streets left to get money from this jerk. Besides, why would you raise so much right now unless you're trying to steal it right here? DONT steal this pot! It can pay you off much more if you hit!

[punter11235]

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I raise to 30

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Why 30 ? Why not call and why not allin ? Last thing you want Villain to do here is call and go allin after safe turn card. I think you can 2 options here :
a)call - simple play, if you hit you will extract sth more (maybe)
b)allin - at least if he wont fold you are favourite or just closely behind.

But why 30 ??

Best wishes !

[Marlow]

[ QUOTE ]
{First time using pokerstove, so please correct me if I did this wrong.}
Assign a range of hands to the villain and use pokerstove to figure out your chance of winning. Let's say he has a draw to the nut flush, a set, or two pair. I'm not including AK or QQ since he limped:

15,840 games 0.015 secs 1,056,000 games/sec
Board: Qh 9h 6d
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 44.5581 % 44.56% 00.00% { JhTh }
Hand 2: 55.4419 % 55.44% 00.00% { 99, 66, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, Qc9c, Qc6c, 9c6c }


So we're about a 1.2:1 underdog to the river. The pot is laying you 1.4:1 on your call. So a call is correct here.

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I think your potential values for hand 2 are pretty liberal as well. So if any of those are in doubt, it tilts the math even further in Hero's favor.

Marlow
[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

[ryanghall]

I call. If you're going to fold to a push, don't raise the flop (though raising is certainly the correct play).

Ryan

[wdbaker]

This is definately a call

I most likely would fold though simply because I don't like variance of that nature, call me risk averse or if you want to be mean a Chicken [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I also wouldn't have raised $30, probably $21 and easier to let go of in a push situation.

If i had a huge bankroll like 500 BB and loved variance, definately a call

Just a fellow players honest opinion

One Street at a Time
wdbaker Denver, Co

[punter11235]

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(though raising is certainly the correct play).


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Could you pls explain why ?
I think raising is major mistake here (unless its all-in raise).

Best wishes