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#21
07-13-2005, 09:02 PM
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Re: holy crap, I think I just played on the 3rd level
[ QUOTE ]
With this guy's style of play, we can pretty much elminate a queen from his hand range after he checks last to act on the flop. This means either a weak-ish hand like a J or some kind of flush draw. [/ QUOTE ] Your hand reading is great here but I don't understand the three bet. Since he's calling the three bet with either of these holdings, your fold equity is zero. You are a slighly bigger dog to a Jack than you are a favorite over a flush draw. If you think each is equally likely, then there is no value in the 3-bet unless he'll fold that weak Jack either here or to a river bet. It feels weird, but I will call down after the turn raise and check-call a non-club river (feels like this player would have bet any other stong draws on the flop.) 
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#22
07-13-2005, 09:07 PM
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Re: holy crap, I think I just played on the 3rd level
[ QUOTE ]
no not at all [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. I just don't see with what he would raise the turn here. Unless he is a complete donk he isn't getting go odds on his turn raise if he is on a draw... Basically I would put him on at least A high to raise you like that... So I don't get the 3 bet here... [/ QUOTE ] Villian is a TAG and checked the flop in position so its pretty safe to assume he doesn't have a Q or J. When donger leads the turn when queens pair it looks like he's betting air and the TAG is probably raising with a pretty wide range of hands. So donger is essentially rebluffing with what looks to the TAG like a whiffed flop c/r. Or atleast that's the way I understand things.
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#23
07-13-2005, 09:13 PM
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Re: holy crap, I think I just played on the 3rd level
Well the board is still raggy but even tags can get tricky. Like slowplaying a set or 2 pairs... I just don't see how he could call the 3 bet with pure air... A tag would have folded to the 3 bet here I think
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#24
07-13-2005, 09:23 PM
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Re: holy crap, I think I just played on the 3rd level
[ QUOTE ]
Well the board is still raggy but even tags can get tricky. Like slowplaying a set or 2 pairs... I just don't see how he could call the 3 bet with pure air... A tag would have folded to the 3 bet here I think [/ QUOTE ] A slowplayed flopped set or two pair just filled up and is capping the turn. That's why I think the most likely hand for the villian is a flush draw after he calls the turn 3-bet.
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#26
07-13-2005, 10:47 PM
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Re: holy crap, I think I just played on the 3rd level
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] With this guy's style of play, we can pretty much elminate a queen from his hand range after he checks last to act on the flop. This means either a weak-ish hand like a J or some kind of flush draw. [/ QUOTE ] Your hand reading is great here but I don't understand the three bet. Since he's calling the three bet with either of these holdings, your fold equity is zero. You are a slighly bigger dog to a Jack than you are a favorite over a flush draw. If you think each is equally likely, then there is no value in the 3-bet unless he'll fold that weak Jack either here or to a river bet. It feels weird, but I will call down after the turn raise and check-call a non-club river (feels like this player would have bet any other stong draws on the flop.) [/ QUOTE ] He could be making this move with a smallish pocket pair, bottom pair, nothing at all, or a flush draw. I want him to fold everything that beats me, plus all of his nothing-at-all hands since with those, he still has 6 outs to pair up and make the best hand, and 18 bluff outs (spades and clubs) that will make it harder for me to call a river bet. When he flat calls the three-bet on the turn, it screams flush draw, so I figured I was good against most busted flush draws, so I checked. He interpreted my river check when a blank fell off to mean that I had been bluffing (since it's weird to three-bet trips on the turn, then check a blank river), and didn't actually have a queen. I figured I beat most of his preflop-limping flush draws, so I called.
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#28
07-13-2005, 11:05 PM
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Re: holy crap, I think I just played on the 3rd level
I dont like the turn 3bet.
If he is semibluffing then dont cost yourself another bet he likely has 6 outs for a pair and 9 for the flush. He might even have more if he has a hand like 98s which IMO is most likely (obviously an OSED would bet the flop). Call the turn raise and the river bet and hope he wasnt slowplaying a monster or hit a pair of 6s lol.
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