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#21
10-15-2005, 11:03 PM
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Re: All-in hand rankings for short stacks
[ QUOTE ]
Pushing [with 15 BBs] is A) A lower variance play, which often is the better choice in tournamnets [/ QUOTE ] Uhh... no it's not? Variance is a measure of the the disbursement of results in a distribution. By definition, moving in has more variance associated with it. [ QUOTE ] B) Alright because w/ normal raises a normal continuation bet will put you into critical mode if you get raised. Not a fun situation. [/ QUOTE ] After raising, I'll have 12 BB left. I can make a probe bet of 3BB on the flop and still have enough to threaten other players if I'm forced out. Also, there's no rule that says I must always continuation-bet. I'd see your point more if I had 12 BB instead of 15. [ QUOTE ] C) Depending on the table, you'll get called by much worse hands. (i.e. you've stolen the blinds two hands ina row by pushing to get up to 15bb's, if you pick up QQ+/AK i'm pretty sure the best play would be to push again, you'll get called by a bunch of inferior hands that you dominate. [/ QUOTE ] This is a specious argument. Of course you'll be happy if you pick up a big hand after the table views you as a LAG, but what if you pick up one of the (much more frequent) marginal raising hands? You might have to avoid rasing because you know that your opponents are likely to take a shot at you. When in middle position, I think most players would prefer a tight image to a loose one, even though the loose image could work out great if you pick up the right hand at the right time. [ QUOTE ] Try not to follow rules like 'Pushing w/ 15bb's is never correct' because they generally don't always work. [/ QUOTE ] This is the best comment of all. How about the rule, 'pushing with 30 BB is never correct.' Does your free-thinking philosophy allow you to agree with that one? There's some line at which pushing (against competent opponents) becomes unprofitable. Perhaps I don't know enough about it to offer an opinion on the location of that line, although I do have a 44% ITM over a few thousand 109s and 215s. My opinion from that experience is that pushes from MP with over 12 BBs are -EV. Of course, one could push a touch more aggressively in a tournament with antes; I'd guess about 13.5 BBs would be the "point of EV no return" in that case. In addition, if I were pushing with a given stack size, I'd be pushing on all playable hands. The strategy of pushing with mediocre hands but raising with good hands will not be successful outside of the low limits IMO. 
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#22
10-15-2005, 11:42 PM
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Re: All-in hand rankings for short stacks
alright for the variance comment i guess i don't know variance well enough to argue this, but a play that 65%+ of the time takes the pot uncontested seems like it would have lower variance. But i'll assume you know more than i do about that.
As for pushing w/ 15bb from BB.. it definitely is not always -EV, and i'd like to see your math that says a push with AJo is bad w/ 5 left to act, 2BB's in the pot. Same goes for 33, beccause unless there are 5 loose players left to act behind you, 33 from MP is a +EV push too. As for the 30bb rule,yea i guess i'll agree that pushing w/ 30bb is probably never the best play.
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#23
10-16-2005, 02:29 AM
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Re: All-in hand rankings for short stacks
[ QUOTE ]
alright for the variance comment i guess i don't know variance well enough to argue this, but a play that 65%+ of the time takes the pot uncontested seems like it would have lower variance. But i'll assume you know more than i do about that. As for pushing w/ 15bb from BB.. it definitely is not always -EV, and i'd like to see your math that says a push with AJo is bad w/ 5 left to act, 2BB's in the pot. [/ QUOTE ] Stack: 15K SB/BB/Ante: 500/1000/125 Pot: 2750 Position: MP3 Players: 10 Hole Cards: AsJc Avg. Calling Range: 77+,ATs+,KQs,ATo+,KQo You will be called: 48.5% Expectation: -1044 Fold: 51.5% Expectation: 2750 Net Expectation: ~910 Someone please check my math - I'm pretty new at this.
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#24
10-16-2005, 02:31 AM
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Re: All-in hand rankings for short stacks
calling range is too wide, but that's the general idea.. according to my spreadsheet i use to do the math for me.. AJo w/ 5 left to act 15 BB stack, should have an EV of about .8BB, AJS, 1.2 BB
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