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  #21  
Old 11-18-2005, 01:08 AM
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Default Re: Show this down?

I think you have to call down here against an unknown. I really think we're against a maniac, an overplayed weaker ace, or flush draw often enough to warrant it.

If anyoneone wants to fold though, can't we do it on the turn? I'm kind of drunk so can't really do the math, but we are drawing really really thin against any legitimate hand that CC preflop and caps this flop (AJ, A6, 66, JJ).
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  #22  
Old 11-18-2005, 01:13 AM
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Default Re: Show this down?

[ QUOTE ]
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[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone fold this?

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God no! I'm leading the turn and calling down a raise.

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Spew.

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No.

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Two possibilities:
1. Flush draw that he's pumping.

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So he checks now, which really sux for our hand.

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2. 2-pair or better. Most people don't 4-bet a flop with top pair.

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What? That's not true. He has just an A or a flush draw way more then he has AJ, A6, 66, J6, JJ, AA here.

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The flop cap signifies 2 pair or a set like >90% of the time against an unknown at 1/2 IMO. I think we're ahead enough given the random donk factor at these limits, but that is just kind of a guess/feeling and I don't think it's a slam dunk.
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  #23  
Old 11-18-2005, 01:17 AM
Redd Redd is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 44
Default Re: Show this down?

I'm gonna go out on a limb and hypothesize that you've read SSHE in the past week. Likely your first read through?

I play the hand the same as OP BTW, but I kick the dog after the turn and river cards.
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  #24  
Old 11-18-2005, 02:23 AM
A_K A_K is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Colorado
Posts: 51
Default Re: Show this down?

Grunch. Do you have a read on the villan? This looks a lot like a set or aces up to me, I don't see much capping with just TPGK. Still I'd probably call down (at least assuming we don't see any more clubs) for the size of the pot, particularly since (a) villan could be pumping a big draw (looks less likely on turn) and (b) since button joining in the fun.

Edit: I shouldn't post when I'm tired and have had severl beers. I can probably find a fold on the turn. The river card is absolutely ugly. Are we good one time in 14 here? I doub it.
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  #25  
Old 11-18-2005, 01:37 PM
ChuckyB ChuckyB is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Winnipeg, Manitoba
Posts: 289
Default Re: Show this down?

At 1/2 I've seen Villain's hand being AT or A9 (or A5) so often I would never lay down AQ. Especially for 14 BB
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