AK play vs. TAGy

[newhizzle]

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The problem with the math, as I see it, is that you're assuming 11% from his position. The 11% is from a full table that I think has gone a bit shy of people (correct me if I'm wrong). And we're talking about an 11% in the hijack -- I don't know about you, but my 9% PFR reflects say an average that ranges from 4% or so UTG and 15-20% from hijack to button. So trotting out the math to reflect only 11% of hands is way off for any villain even mildly aware of position, which I think basically means they're breathing.

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yeah, the 11 % was a generous number in the favor of calling, just sort of giving the benefit of the doubt to his side, i think villain is definately raising more than that making this even more of a easy 3-bet simply for value, not even mentioning postflop advantages

I pretty much agree with raising preflop, and probably folding the turn, definitely the river. That is what I would call "standard" play for me. Again, looking at my PT stats, I was trying to figure out ways to see more showdowns, but it looks like this isn't one of them.

I'm trying to change my game a little bit... possibly loosening up my pre-flop range of hands.. staying aggressive on the flop, and a little less aggressive on the turn...

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so by raising we are making a profit of .076BB per hand plus we will have the initiative on the flop, but ill cancel that out because we are OOP and just look at the EV


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I thank you for doing the math. In my opinion being OOP takes far more than this away from our advantage but as stated from another player he could easily have a looser raising strategy from this position.

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so by raising we are making a profit of .076BB per hand plus we will have the initiative on the flop, but ill cancel that out because we are OOP and just look at the EV


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So you actually stand by your position that this shouldn't be raised?

What if there's a cold-caller on the button? Or a regular guy limps in MP1? Do you raise those?

I never said it shouldn't be raised. I would rather know exactly why I am raising rather than just "this is a monster lets push the pot".

If there are other players then we have a clear equity edge, but against one player OOP where we probably have a slight equity edge it isn't so clear.

Obviously I agree that from the results we can now see that raising has a positive expectation however it can't be certain the exact expectation deficiency from being OOP

OK, this is my last post on this thread, as this is a . There are a ton of reasons to raise here and, again, you are completely ignoring fold equity and the role of the initiative here. Against this guys range you have quite a bit of equity anyways, you are ahead way more often than you are not and quite often you have him dominated. You shouldn't need Pokerstove to tell you this.

My reasoning goes a lot deeper than "this is a monster hand" but honestly with something this easy you shouldn't need to resort to combinatorial analysis. This is just not a close situation.

I wrote a bunch of stuff, but just erased it because nothing really matters here but this part:

Nothing, absolutely nothing but AK doesn't beat you by that river. Fold, fold, fold. The way to get to SD more is not by making bad calls on the turn and river, it's by reading the board and your opponent, and making better decisions.

And trying to shoehorn your stats to meet expectations is putting the cart before the horse.

Everyone has their own style. So trying to fit your stats to some composite, average "ideal" is just really, really crazy - and actually mess you up far more than you realize by making you do things that contradict your style.

And I think you need something like 5k hands to make any stat even somewhat meaningful. 400 hands is not meaningful in any way. To even write that sentence... never mind. You get it. Make changes, look at your stats again in a month.