AK vs an apparent LAG, need a line.

[rollingdirty]

[kiddj]

Why can't we, given the flop check/call, fold on the turn? The pot is not big. If we are assuming a random hand, it's about a 36% chance he has the flush so...
wait...
...so he doesn't have the flush about 64% of the time? I think I need to retract my opening sentence.

Could someone explain to me the equity/EV of raising or calling down from the turn on?

[MrWookie47]

Perhaps "wreck" was too strong a word. Netting an extra 0.5 BB doesn't exactly constitute a massacre. That said, 0.5 BB is 0.5 BB, and if you make a single play that nets you 0.5 BB every 100 hands, that's a very significant improvement in your win rate.

As for the play of this specific hand, I don't think you can raise the turn any more, but I think you have to call down. He doesn't necessarily have the club, but if he does, and you raise, you're the one who's going to get wrecked. If he doesn't have it, he's not going to stick around and pay you off.

[SlantNGo]

I love this hand because it plays so differently depending on your opponent.

Vs. a tight player who would bet JJ/QQ/KK into the flop and fold to a raise, wait till the turn to raise. With the 4th club coming, call down.

Vs. a LAG, I would raise this on the flop. A LAG will probably re-raise here with an Ace, and not fold JJ/QQ/KK. Your hand is very strong here, and a club is going to the river no matter what. Also, you're seeing a showdown no matter what, so hammer the crap out of him on the flop. If you were holding something that wasn't quite as strong, something you might consider releasing on the turn if a 4th club comes, then wait for the turn.

[adsman]

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I think just the opposite of you. If this was multiway, I'd raise the flop to get all the other callers to pad the pot for me and/or fold them. If is HU, I think you can afford forego an edge on the cheap street and wreck him on the expensive street.

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I do this multiway with a set or 2 pair as you've got the outs to the boat. With TPTK however, I wait for a safe card on the turn. In a multiway pot with this flop you are not going to get the players you are worried about, (ie the lone clubs) to fold. And you might find that it is you that is padding the pot for them.

[Shillx]

What is hero's line from here?

I've been thinking about this hand for awhile (haven't read any other replies) and it seems to me that the best play is to call down. Let's see what happens if we raise...

After we raise, the pot will be 7 BB. If the villian has a hand like AJ [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], he is essentially calling off 1 BB to win 1.2 BB. So if we raise and he folds, he would be playing his hand incorrectly. Again, give the villian AJ [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and assume he folds to the raise and always bets the river if we call.

EV raise = .15*5 BB = .75 BB
EV call down = 2(2BB*.85 - 1 BB) = 1.4 BB

So it is clearly wrong to raise in this spot, and this doesn't even count the times that he will pull a stop and go (with or without a flush). So if we raise, and then he bets into us on the river it will give the hero a major headache since we don't know if he has the goods or is bluffing again. Even if he does call the raise with AJ [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], we are going to check behind on the river so it will be impossible for us to get any more out of raising (since he will often times call with a flush so betting the river after he calls is probably -EV). The only time a raise would be correct is if he will throw away a flush. Don't count on that so call it down.

Brad

[Aaron W.]

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And let him draw cheap? No thanks, I'm getting my money in the pot when I have an advantage. And with that many clubs on the board the chances that he has one go down. Even if you say to me that you called and he had the club, I'd still do it the same way with the read that you gave.

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1. How do you know he's drawing? How do you know he doesn't have AJ or TT or somesuch?

2. Let's say villain really is on a draw. Isn't raising the turn more +EV than raising the flop? (Note that you probably only get to do one or the other, not both). If you think villain is drawing, which I personally doubt, you obviously have a far higher pot equity edge on the turn than you do on the flop, and your raise is twice as large.

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I completely agree with you if the hand was multi-way. You pass up a small advantage on the flop to take advantage of a bigger edge on the turn. But this is HU. That's a completely different story. So I take every edge that I can as soon as it comes.

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Explain why being heads up makes that much difference here. Why is it so crucial to take advantage of a small edge ASAP?

[Shillx]

My line would be to raise the flop. In a multiway pot, it is often times correct to just call and then raise the turn. The reason why is because if anoter [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] comes, we won't be putting any more $$ into the pot. Against 4 or 5 other players, someone will almost surely have a flush and we can safely fold to a turn bet. But when it is HU, we can't fold if bet into on the turn, so it is correct to ram and jam the flop.

Let's say that the villian has AJ [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and is willing to LAG it up (IOW we have to assume that our AK is good here). By raising the flop, we get to put in lots of bets as a big favorite. If we wait until the turn, ~20% of the time we won't be able to raise since it will put a 4-flush out there. And just because we put lots of bets in on the flop doesn't mean that we have to slow down on a safe turn card. So if we raise the flop and the turn is a non-[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], we will sometimes get action on the turn as well. If the two streets weren't mutually exclusive (ex. if you raise the flop you aren't allowed to raise the turn) then you should wait until the turn to raise. But since you can get action on both streets from a worse hand you should take the EV on the flop. Again, 20% of the time the turn card comes you will be in a calldown mode.

Brad

[johnc]

Fold. Why? Pot's not big enough to risk any more on. TPTK may hold up to a 3 club board but IMO there's very strong possiblity you're behind when that 4th club hits. W/O very strong reads on this guy put the ego away and save your bets. AKo had lots of pf value but not facing this board.

[BriPlay]

yeah..why would you want to bet a LAG when you are a favorite and you have no indication he has a hand. better to let him have a cheap card and draw out on you..or wait for 4th club to fall in which case you have no info to act on
Brian