I"ve decided

[Blarg]

I think the low levels subject you to some severe ups and downs because so very often they're basically just showdown games where you will get in a very high percentage of confrontations, which means you have to survive a very high number. You'll be flipping coins like crazy and getting sucked out on a lot just because the fighting is constant.

In higher games, when players are not so keen on throwing away advantages too easily and won't necessarily call with crap just for fun, you have a little folding equity and so are able to avoid a few more confrontations. Since there aren't that many confrontations usually necessary to get at least to third place, that counts a lot toward taming variance.

It's probably possible to go on a blizzard of wins at the lowest levels that would make players at even slightly higher levels gasp in awe. It's also possible to go on an avalanche of losses that would make them go "no friggin way that could happen the way you describe it."

That's what happens at levels where any two cards are an excuse to fight and a chance to have some fun and make a killing. It's a different sort of game. Enormous upside, enormous downside, and fight fight fight fight fight. Make sure your cards have showdown value, because you won't be keeping them a secret.

[zambonidrivr]

blow me