Enough bets with full house?

[shemp]

I left out something. After 3 turn bets I'm unlikely to 3-bet a baby full on the river against a real player, no matter the preceding action. Well, you don't have a baby full, but it's pretty close given that to beat a baby full, he had to play dubiously and hit a one outer. I'm not sure how many bets I've lost in life in this scenario, but there it is, what I do.

[Vehn]

I haven't played that high but I would probably just call in a 15 game and put in one more raise on the river in a 30.

[andyfox]

Because the likelihood of him having A-A increases substantially when he raises the river, and you don't know this until you put a bet in.

[andyfox]

"AK and AQ would definitely play the flop that way as well as the turn."

Change your would to could and I agree. However, it's much more likely he would have played A-A or A-9s that way. Ergo, I just call his river raise too.

[andyfox]

"My my how those aggressive stances you would normally take in a typical mid-limit game change because the stakes just got higher."

The "typical" 80-160 player is a lot different than his counterpart in 20-40. Different strokes for different folks. Of course one should play differently than in a typical middle limit game. Anyway, he bet the flop, bet the turn, 3-bet the turn and bet the river. Sounds pretty aggressive to me.

My my, it's not fear of the stakes.

[Dreamer]

Will the player call your raise with hands worse than yours.
He may have 77 or AQ but a call seems right if he either will bluff raise the river or raise with AQ but would fold to a reraise from you.
The raise seems to only have value from 77.

I would call because the raise looks like monster -EV.

Anybody who does not understand this should read the 4 Jacks up example from theory of poker.
Betting even if you have the best hand the vast majority of the time is sometimes wrong.
I am amazed so many people said raise in this thread.

[Dreamer]

Who cares if he does have AQ or AK if he wont call the reraise with those hands then its a terrible bet.
Apart from from 77 only hands that beat you will call/reraise back at you.

[Depraved]

It's hard to believe people think this is even close. AQ is definitely calling your reraise, and it's safe to assume any player will call the reraise with one and only one of the following three cards in their hand:

A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

He wouldn't want to get outplayed on the river for one bet. If he was gonna dump Ax, it would have likely been on the turn.

[Josh W]

because, as you said, i THINK he has AA. I don't have enough certainty to warrant a fold. There are times that I do, tho.

Josh

[Clarkmeister]

There's a reason Gabe, Josh and Andy impressed me with their live play and its not shocking that they are the ones who, despite being in the minority, were dead right on this one.

UTG flipped over AA and I quietly tapped the table and mucked.

A few general thoughts:

I said "seemingly tight" because I had only about an hour at the table when this hand occurred. He seemed tight, but an hour isn't enough to definitively say "rock".

I think he played the hand, like, real real well. Top-notch players like Gabe nailed it right away, but his misdirection both preflop and on the turn threw almost everyone else for a loop, and in Josh's words nearly caused me to pay $540 instead of $160 to see his aces.

I do still think he could have played AK or AQ this way to the turn. People in this game were very Abdullian with their EP limps/limp-reraises/open raises. Their limps with AK and AQ really prevented you from taking advantage when they limped with JTs. The problem is that AK/AQ likely isn't coming back for more on the river. At that point, I think reraising again is -EV, though it felt silly *not* reraising, which is why I posted the hand, to be sure.

Perhaps I should have called as Gabe suggests on the turn, but I still think that's a shade too quick to go into a shell. I am glad that I at least didn't checkraise the turn, as I lose one more bet on that line.

In the end, I followed some of my own advice. I have a friend learning how to play and I told him "sometimes your opponent loudly tells you that you are beat, and even if you aren't sure just how, its generally bad poker to ignore the message." That's why I called, not because I was sure he had AA, but because it didn't matter what I thought he had, he seemed to be loudly telling me that I was no good.

I likely overplayed one later on that may have cost me extra bets (as opposed to a possible underplay here), I may put it up.