500BB loss possible due to chance? PT stats included

[Psyonic]

Thank you all for the comments so far. I guess I should add a few more things. I only recently got PokerTracker (less than a month ago) so this is nowhere near my entire history. I have been playing for about a year part time. Earlier this year I got up 3k with play and bonuses at $1/$2, then I moved up to 2/4, where the downfall started. I got PokerTracker about halfway through my attempt at 2/4.

My Preflop aggression stat is .79, and when that is factored in my total goes to 1.74.

As for Post Flop play, it seems from your comments I definitely need to work on that. I will be re-reading SSH today... I also have HPFAP but I have not read it yet, do you think that is a worthwhile read right now, or too complex for my stage of the game?

[aK13]

It is definitely worth the read, but don't overuse the concepts in it.

[Dave G.]

SSH is all you need for any of these games. I have HPFAP but have not read it yet. I've heard too many stories about people trying to apply the concepts therein to these games and just losing money with them.

HPFAP assumes that your opponents are tough, thinking opponents. Those are a rare breed indeed at Party.

[kapw7]

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AF = 3.24 Seems like you're a betting station.

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Actually probably more of a folding station.

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In his case it most likely means that he is no better than playing with his cards open.

[mmbt0ne]

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I want a graph also it would give us a idea if this was a slow stead losing streak, or a group of sharp downswings with normal breakeven play inbetween.

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This is a really good idea. Let's see a graph!

[Psyonic]

You asked for it, so here it is, a graph of my poker tracker data! As you can see... quite the downturn.

[Dave G.]

Nice graph. Where might I find the software you use to do that?

[irishpint]

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Is you Aggression including preflop?? Perhaps you are pushing people OUT of pots before they have a chance to get big?

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I was thinking sort of the same thing. I'm gradually coming around to the view that there's an upper bound on how high one's AF should be, and 3.0+ is probably over that bound. Either you're blasting people out of pots when you should be keeping them hanging around (like in WA/WB situations), or you're folding too often when you should be calling.

That's not going to account for 500+ BB all by itself, but it's probably a contributing factor.

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[mmbt0ne]

GOO!!!!!!!

Yeah, we have a serious problem Houston.

If you can do the following, we might be able to help.
1) Look through PT for the 5 hands you lost the most money on (by BB) and didn't see a river.
You can do this quickly by looking at ALL of your ring game hands, going to the 'Game Notes' tab, click 'Get All' and then sort them by the most BB you lost in a single hand.
Look through all of these hands until you find the first 5 that didn't involve you seeing a showdown.
2) Post those 5 hands in this thread and let us respond.
3) Profit

If that doesn't work, find a few more examples of folds you've made at any point in the hand, and post them here. The more obvious you think the fold is, the better it is to post it.

[Shillx]

This is why AF is such a useless stat. Yes you do do a good amount of betting, but you fold way too much and don't call anywhere near enough. It seems like you are quick to bet hands but freeze up when someone else bets in front of you. A few observations...

First Action after PFR: 62.4% Bet

This seems high to me. Over my last 13k hands (not a lot for me), my bet after PFR is only 53%. This kinda confirms that you are quick to bet in pots where everyone checks to you (or where no one has shown much strength). The problem is when you have to decide between calling/raising and folding. It looks like you lean toward folding if it is close.

Fold% in hand after betting/rasing/cr'ing flop: 28%

You fold about 11% more in the hand after getting aggressive on the flop (you see about this many less showdowns then I do as well). Our Ww/oSD% numbers are the same (27-29%) when getting aggressive on the flop so you can't attribute the lack of showdowns to winning the hand by folding everyone out. You compound your preflop tightness by putting bets in on the flop and then folding. You need to learn when not to play the raise/fold game (calling is a good thing sometimes).

Also when you just call on the flop, you fold an amazing 47% of the time somewhere later in the hand (I'm at 37%). This is really weak-tight play or just terrible luck at hitting draws (which is doubtful given your high W$SD). Anyone with such a win winrate at showdown can't be running that bad.

W$SD after betting/raising/cr'ing river: 75%

This is much too high IMO for someone who is betting the river over 36% of the time. I only bet about 29% of the time on the river (this is too low) and I win just 77% of the time. If I bet 36% of the time on the river (this is a good goal for me since I'm winning far too much when called), my W$SD would be far far lower then 75%. With the amount of hands that you see to the river, you have to value bet even more then you are now (we probably all need to). I don't really know what a good value for this is (maybe 66-70%), but the only hands that you seem to take to the river are monsters that rarely loose.

By comparison, I've played about 5000 fewer hands then you have but just have 200 fewer river actions. Stop folding so much!!!! (And Good Luck)

Brad