500BB loss possible due to chance? PT stats included
 

So ya... I'd like to believe that I've mostly just been having a bad run, but I'm seriously pushing 600BB now. I was playing at 2/4 getting raped basically, so I dropped down to 1/2, which I used to do really well at. I feel completely comfortable here, and yet since I've came down I've already dropped another 150BB. Tonight alone I dropped 80BB. I've also increased my study time lately, I have PT and GT+ and use them as best I can... I don't know what else to do. Out of the 5 or 6 times I got KK tonight, I only won 1. That same theme happened with every other good hand. I don't want this to be a whine post... I guess I'll put my PT stats on here and see what people think of them. http://i13.photobucket.com/albums/a2...Tstats6-24.png

Re: 500BB loss possible due to chance? PT stats included
 

It all looks pretty good, but it looks like the pots you are losing are bigger than the ones you are winning. Or more accurately that you are putting in more money when you are behind or when you end up behind than when you win. Your stats seem to suggest that you go to showdown an appropriate % and win there an appropriate % as well. The only thing I can think of is that you are overbetting hands when you are behind and failing to realize when you are behind. Betting into a lot of calling stations with a very small part of the board may be responsible for this.

I would suggest going to your went to showdown hands and replaying some of the big money losers to see where and how you went wrong. Did someone catch lucky on the river? Did you overbet? Failed bluff? This might give you a better insight on how to fix the problem.

Just noticed this. Your folded to river bet seems high at 60%. Is this an indication of drawing too much or perhaps folding too many winners?

Re: 500BB loss possible due to chance? PT stats included
 

Only thing that jumps out at me is your maybe a little over aggressive. Also - 29% going to SD sems a little low which would account for the W$SD being a little hi.

I'm 3BB/100 and I'm in the 34% 54% range,

Is you Aggression including preflop?? Perhaps you are pushing people OUT of pots before they have a chance to get big?

Pre flop play looks right on so I have to assume it's the post flop that us hurting you.

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Your folded to river bet seems high at 60%. Is this an indication of drawing too much or perhaps folding too many winners?

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I agree - one of the biggest mistakes is folding a winner because of the inability to put in one more bet.



Grinderswarehouse - NOT just another BLOG

Re: 500BB loss possible due to chance? PT stats included
 

You are too weak tight.
Loosen up in the blinds and start defending! (85% fold BB to steal HU ??). Raise more PF. And stop folding all the time on the river! as everywhere else maybe. Calling is not a crime. You are the perfect victim for bluffing-stealing and you are too predictable. Everyone knows you have a good hand when you bet and they steal from you when you check. BTW how is your C-R stats?

And 500BB loss is NOT due to chance.

Re: 500BB loss possible due to chance? PT stats included
 

You seem to play too much fit or fold poker post flop.

Re: 500BB loss possible due to chance? PT stats included
 

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Is you Aggression including preflop?? Perhaps you are pushing people OUT of pots before they have a chance to get big?

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I was thinking sort of the same thing. I'm gradually coming around to the view that there's an upper bound on how high one's AF should be, and 3.0+ is probably over that bound. Either you're blasting people out of pots when you should be keeping them hanging around (like in WA/WB situations), or you're folding too often when you should be calling.

That's not going to account for 500+ BB all by itself, but it's probably a contributing factor.

Re: 500BB loss possible due to chance? PT stats included
 

Yikes, your folded to river bet is pretty high. I think the normal range for this is about 40% - 48%. Folding too many winners on the river is a sure way to lose money. This is reflected by your went to SD, which is a bit on the low side (not too bad though).

But to answer your question... statistically, the chances of a -600BB run are extremely small if you're a winning player. So yeah, spend some time evaluating your game and see if you find any major areas you can improve. Try seeing more showdowns for a start.

Re: 500BB loss possible due to chance? PT stats included
 

does losing change the way you play?

do you multitable?

Re: 500BB loss possible due to chance? PT stats included
 

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You seem to play too much fit or fold poker post flop.

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It's not *seem to*, that's pretty serious nut peddling going on.

Re: 500BB loss possible due to chance? PT stats included
 

vp$ip looks a little low but might be ok. Are you loosening up as you get closer to the button?

Your pfr% is a little low also. Are you raising to isolate? Stealing blinds when it's folded to you in lp with decent hands?

Your won at SD% is high, you are probably throwing away too many winners.