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#21
08-23-2005, 01:56 PM
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Re: Wynn 15/30 Out-counting exercise
I think you should 4bet preflop.
You only need 3 outs to call here and your backdoor draws nearly account for that by themselves. I think it's a pretty easy call. 
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#22
08-23-2005, 01:57 PM
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Re: Wynn 15/30 Out-counting exercise
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I must've miscalculated it because it's not close by my calculations putting you on AK and TT-AA, I give him ~4.75 outs. Did I mess it up? [/ QUOTE ] 99 is in my range. Don't forget about effective odds. [/ QUOTE ] Did you mean reverse implied odds? Effective odds don't really apply here. [/ QUOTE ] I mean both. Effective odds apply here because he'll likely be calling bets on two streets.
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#23
08-23-2005, 01:58 PM
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Re: Wynn 15/30 Out-counting exercise
As I told Ent in IRC, the word "baseyian" makes me scared. That said- doing my best "I read SSHE 9 months ago", I feel like 3 is too few and 6 is too much.
Jason has enough different hands, that assuming only 3 outs is bad, imo.
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#24
08-23-2005, 01:58 PM
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Re: Wynn 15/30 Out-counting exercise
[ QUOTE ]
But you aren't continuing if the gutshot comes, so only runner-runner perfect give you the straight you'd be playing. So I didn't account for it. [/ QUOTE ] Actually, hero's straight will come in enough that you need to account for it. Of course any T is an OESD. And if the turn is the K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] you will draw to the gutshot. In fact, any 8 or K may give you odds to call with 1 or 2 overs, 10BBs in the pot, and closing the action. It looks to me like the math showing about 4.5 outs is pretty decent, and the reverse implied odds aren't so high as to make a call here all that close of a decision.
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#25
08-23-2005, 02:01 PM
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Re: Wynn 15/30 Out-counting exercise
[ QUOTE ]
I think you should 4bet preflop. You only need 3 outs to call here and your backdoor draws nearly account for that by themselves. I think it's a pretty easy call. [/ QUOTE ] The pot, including rmarotti's flop call, will be 7.83 BB on the turn. If I bet and Button calls, rmarotti will be getting 9.83:1 which isn't enough to draw to a gutshot. He possibly has other outs, say overcards, but those have reverse implied odds attached to them. That's what makes the analysis complicated and the call closer than it first appears.
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#26
08-23-2005, 02:08 PM
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Re: Wynn 15/30 Out-counting exercise
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I think you should 4bet preflop. You only need 3 outs to call here and your backdoor draws nearly account for that by themselves. I think it's a pretty easy call. [/ QUOTE ] The pot, including rmarotti's flop call, will be 7.83 BB on the turn. If I bet and Button calls, rmarotti will be getting 9.83:1 which isn't enough to draw to a gutshot. He possibly has other outs, say overcards, but those have reverse implied odds attached to them. That's what makes the analysis complicated and the call closer than it first appears. [/ QUOTE ] The turn would be an easy call with a gutshot. He'd only need to make up one bet on the river to make it profitable. It's probably marginal if the turn is an eight, because then he could be drawing to chop outs, but I think his ace outs in that case are still enough to make up the difference. As for the effective odds thing, I'm pretty sure those are accounted for when estimating backdoor outs in SSH. So when we give a backdoor flush draw 1.5 outs, we're taking effective odds into consideration already.
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#27
08-23-2005, 02:11 PM
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Re: Wynn 15/30 Out-counting exercise
He's almost certainly making up 1 bet on the river if he makes his gutshot, though, with the possibility of multiple bets if you have a big hand like a set.
(I don't know that i'd draw to the gutshot if the 8 came, though, as it is a 4-straight and not to the nuts, thus making it harder to collect anything on the river.) -d
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#28
08-23-2005, 02:12 PM
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Re: Wynn 15/30 Out-counting exercise
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I think you should 4bet preflop. You only need 3 outs to call here and your backdoor draws nearly account for that by themselves. I think it's a pretty easy call. [/ QUOTE ] The pot, including rmarotti's flop call, will be 7.83 BB on the turn. If I bet and Button calls, rmarotti will be getting 9.83:1 which isn't enough to draw to a gutshot. He possibly has other outs, say overcards, but those have reverse implied odds attached to them. That's what makes the analysis complicated and the call closer than it first appears. [/ QUOTE ] This doesn't make any sense. If the flop call is easy, and it is, then you make it and reevaluate on the turn. If you think the turn call was close, you have to post the turn card and action. You can't say the turn call will be close so the flop is close when it isn't. Krishan
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#29
08-23-2005, 02:13 PM
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Re: Wynn 15/30 Out-counting exercise
[ QUOTE ]
The pot, including rmarotti's flop call, will be 7.83 BB on the turn. If I bet and Button calls, rmarotti will be getting 9.83:1 which isn't enough to draw to a gutshot. He possibly has other outs, say overcards, but those have reverse implied odds attached to them. That's what makes the analysis complicated and the call closer than it first appears. [/ QUOTE ] How not? Gutshot's 1:10.5. He's getting 9.83:1 and will certainly make at least 1 more on the river if he hits, likely 2.
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