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#11
05-13-2004, 12:09 PM
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Re: How long can you hold your breath?
[ QUOTE ]
I would think KQ is the most logical but I dont know why he is drawing with this board [/ QUOTE ] KQ flopped the nut straight. [ QUOTE ] Good raise if you get EP to fold either way. I think that makes your chances a lot better and prolly makes that raise +EV. [/ QUOTE ] What better hands do you think EP has that would fold for one final bet here? 
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#12
05-13-2004, 01:02 PM
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Re: How long can you hold your breath?
Hi David,
I don't like the 3bet on the river. There are too many hands that beat you that the mono board would have scared your opponents limp. Any set may wait to make sure another flush card doesn't come before raising. A small flush might go limp until the river. The nut flush might go limp until the river, hoping to catch more overcallers. Two straights were possible on the flop. And I've been seeing a lot of limping with hands like AA lately on Party. So its possible AA was chicken of the mono board after trying to get cute, and raised it when his set got there on the river. Now I'm not saying any of these plays are smart or good by your opponents, but I've seen them all in these games. Surely you have too. With top two on such a coordinated board, you have a clear call. Saying " I can't come up with a hand that he would bet this way that beats me, so I 3 bet. " is dangerous thinking in these Party 15-30 games. Maybe you can't come up with a hand that beats you that *YOU* would play that way, but they don't think like you do. And it's a mistake to give them that credit. Call. -Scott
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#13
05-13-2004, 01:09 PM
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Results and thoughts
Maybe I misunderstand the concept of limping to keep the pot small, but I thought this was a prefect example of what Mason talks about. With a hand like AJo or AQo that you like less and less as you go deeper into the hand, you don't build the pot pre-flop so that you can make a raise on the flop that will drive out hands that otherwise have correct odds to chase on the big pot (gutshots, overcards etc). Raising pre-flop here might have driven out the button and SB, but would leave a much bigger pot that no one would fold on. THe fact that no one folded anyway is either a product of that flop, or my excellent table selection.
I raised the river because I couldn't imagine him having a hand that beat me and waiting to the river to raise. I put him on AT. I won the HUGE pot(which kick-started me on an amazing 30 minutes) and the HH showed him on Jc 3c??? I can't explain why he didn't raise the turn (OK I can't explain why he played this hand), I would have had to seriously think about folding if he did.
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#15
05-13-2004, 01:15 PM
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Re: How long can you hold your breath?
This is insane. No one is folding a set or straight or this situation unless it gets capped, and even then it probably won't happen.
One reason for not raising is to keep this guy in, not knock him off a better hand.
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#16
05-13-2004, 01:15 PM
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Re: How long can you hold your breath?
A small flush, the ass end straight (maybe even the high end), a set. The point is that Davids play is consistant with the nut flush and it doesn't have to work many times to be profitable.
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#17
05-13-2004, 01:18 PM
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Re: Results and thoughts
Mason is usually too passive, if he advocates limping in a situation and people here say otherwise, side with aggression and the 2+2 posters.
In 15/30, because of the blind structure especially, you absolutely MUST raise with AJ here if you're going to play it. Allowing both the sb and bb to have nearly free shots to beat your hand is awful. Your main concern with a hand like this is narrowing the field, not keeping the pot small. And every $ you're putting in preflop with this hand is +EV with bad limpers, yet another reason to raise it.
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#18
05-13-2004, 01:24 PM
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Re: How long can you hold your breath?
The pot has 17 BB, so the guy has to call with a worse hand 17 times for every time he might fold a better hand. On this one I say do what you can to win the pot!
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#20
05-13-2004, 01:43 PM
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Re: How long can you hold your breath?
[ QUOTE ]
The pot has 17 BB, so the guy has to call with a worse hand 17 times for every time he might fold a better hand. On this one I say do what you can to win the pot! [/ QUOTE ] If I'm reading the action correctly, the EP cold-called two bets, and now he can close the action by calling a 3rd one, with a huge pot on the line. I don't see anyone folding a strong hand here once in 100 times.
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