Lotto Strategies (OT)

[TheNutz]

If lotto was possibly +EV long term ANYWHERE, everyone would buy every combination possible to win - Therefore wiping out the fat that it WAS + EV because the pot would then be divided [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[BottlesOf]

Really, do you think a lot of people with access to over $100M in cash (or whatver large amount needed) would do this?

[Nick B.]

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lotto is -EV no matter what!

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If you look at it in the short run it is. No the "pot odds" aren't there to try and chase, but if you look at implied odds they are definitely there. I think the ability to never have to work again and substantially increase my lifestyle would be worth more than enough to overcome the short term -ev.

[amerksmann22]

if that has happened i am willing to bet it was less then 10x ever in the whole US but I dont think that it has happened

[BottlesOf]

I'm think it happens in NY, about once or twice a year. However, this does not factor in the time where ppl. have the same numbers, so who knows...

[amerksmann22]

i understand your response and if you feel that way that is a great reason to play, i guess.

Personally, i dont like to take 90,000,000 - 1 chances

[ynotgolf]

If you lived in the U.S., I'd advise you to find an 86 year old illegal immigrant to buy a ticket for you, they seem to win the Lotto on a consistant basis in my state.

[CountDuckula]

[ QUOTE ]
If lotto was possibly +EV long term ANYWHERE, everyone would buy every combination possible to win - Therefore wiping out the fat that it WAS + EV because the pot would then be divided [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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I heard what may be an apocryphal story about someone that tried to form a consortium to buy every possible combination in a lottery whose jackpot had grown to well over the total number of combinations. The state said, "Sure, you can do it, but you have to buy each and every ticket from agents; we're not going to just print you up a batch of tickets with all of the possible combinations." The time to do that by hand, as well as to verify that all possible combos were in fact selected, made it virtually impossible to do it in the time between the announcement of the jackpot and the deadline for buying the tickets.

Also, remember that they overstate the size of the jackpot; when they say $100 million, what they really mean is an annuity that will pay out a total of $100 million over the course of 20-30 years. The cash option, where it's available (it's not in Massachusetts, except for the Mega Millions, and that only because it's a multi-state game and Mass. doesn't make the rules for that), is usually about half of the announced value.

-Mike

[BradleyT]

It happens all the time with the powerball.

[Simon Diamond]

Personally, i dont like to take 90,000,000 - 1 chances

The odds of winning the UK Lotto are around 13,500,000-1 (I think). I am realistic enough to know that I am very unlikely to ever hit the jackpot - but for a small outlay each week, the chance of winning a life changing amount of money is one I don't mind taking.

Simon