Five hands with questions.

[chief444]

I would complete with 6 limpers.

[afs]

[ QUOTE ]
Can you explain how the 15:1 odds matches up with needing to win 1 time in 50? I don't understand this connection.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, for implied odds. But I was way overestimating. You probably need to win closer to 1 in 30.

If you net an average 4BB whenever you play postflop, you need to win one time out of 32 in order to justify your initial 1/4BB investment.

[afs]

Err, I'm really confused in my thinking. That last message applies if you win 50% of the time you play postflop, and win 4BB (including all the additional losses when you lose.) Obviously unrealistic. In any case, your win rate needs to be lower than 1 in 15 taking implied odds into account.

[afs]

Huh. I looked at it more, and am no longer at _all_ convinced the limp is right.

Let's say the only way to win is with a straight, that you win every time w/ a straight, and that the only way to make a straight is via an OESD. This seems pretty fair -- you'll lose w/ yr straight sometimes, but you'll also win w/ flopped two pair or trips or even a freakish four of a kind, so it should roughly balance. Let's say also you bet one SB on the flop and one BB on the turn every time trying to make your straight. You'll flop an OESD one time in nine. You'll make your straight 31.5% of the time. Imagine yr average profit, WHEN YOU WIN, is 8BB -- probably conservative w/ this many people in. Out of 100 times when you play past the flop, you win 8*31.5 ~= 250BB, and lose 1.5*68.1 ~= 103BB, for an average profit of ~1.5BB. You'll only be playing past the flop when you have the OESD, so yr average profit is ~.18BB. This is after investing .25BB -- a loss of .07BB.

... that said, you'll win other times. Maybe you KNOW that when you win, you'll win more than 8BB. It might be +EV. But w/ these assumptions, yr losing seven cents every time you complete at .5/1.

[kenewbie]

Thank you all for your comments.

I think I had a momentarly brainlapse in hand #1, just too many opponents on the flop to bet.

I normaly dont play unsuited connectors as in hand #2, but if there _ever_ is a time to play it, this must be it. You'd be hard pressed to get better odds at any table than 15:1 preflop.

Maybe it is a hand that should always be mucked, I dont know, but it does sound playable to me. I have done no math though.

Hand #4 is just hard to fold. Maybe I should 3-bet the flop and fold to a cap. I just dont want to be so aggressive when looking to see if I'm beat that my opponent gets scared and calls me down with a better hand, that will maximize my losses.

Again, thank you all for your comments.

[kenewbie]

I think 8BB is a bit too conservative.

I'm not sure if the hand is playable, but like I said; if it ever is a time to play it this must be it.

k

[MicroBob]

are we talking about whether 98o is playable in the SB with several limpers??

seems pretty obvious to me.

[Raiser]

[ QUOTE ]
are we talking about whether 98o is playable in the SB with several limpers??

seems pretty obvious to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Bob. I was the one that originally posted the question and would complete here. I guess the question I was trying to get at is where is the line? How many limpers does it take to make medium unsuited connectors worth a half a bet? Obviously you are playing for the implied odds value of the hand so I suppose it matters what kind of table you are at. But, in general, how many limpers makes this an obvious complete situation?

Thanks.