Analyze this hand from different perspectives

[Joe Tall]

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Now the SB's play seems a bit suspect(after the fact),

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Why?

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and what do you read each player as having, and how do you proceed from now when the k falls on the turn?

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I assume he read them for both having overpairs as a limp in EP on the 2+2 table always rings bells. I also assume his check-raise 3-bet was to represent a set such as 99 and jam his draw. After the flop cap he knows he is surely behind a monster Overpair and posibly a set. So checking the turn if his draw misses seems fine to me.

Just MY thoughts,
Joe Tall

[morgant]

i can understand betting a draw for semi-bluff or pot sweetening purposes, however, the sb can tell by the action that these other two have either big hands or bigger draws, the sb is drawing to the 3rd nut. the sb is a big dog to just an overpair and much bigger dog to a set, i would like to understand the logic in 3 betting into this strength with just a draw that could possibly lose even if it hits? yes there is semi-bluffing but one of its allures is the idea to get your opponents to fold and i think clearly here there is no way the sb is getting 1 of the other two to fold much less both of them. also i have not gotten too proficient with pot odds and am going to make a conscious effort to work that into my game, so if any can work some odds numbers into this hand would be great too. i guess i am basically saying is it a standard play to 3 bet a non nut draw into this strength?

[Joe Tall]

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the sb is a big dog to just an overpair

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I don't think it is that big of a dog. In fact the 3-hands as they are, AA is the biggest dog on this flop.

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possibly lose even if it hits?

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There is no chance that a higher suited hand limped in this game. That's an easy read.

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a standard play to 3 bet a non nut draw into this strength?

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The non-nut is mute via my above statement. I feel in this game the play very well could be.

What do you think the action should be on the flop, BTW? I think SB played it fine. Surely he can't call 2 cold, TWICE?! If he does, he should flip his cards up. Do you think he should fold a 4-flush?!??!??!

Granted he realized that he was behind a set and has to check the turn if a blank hits right?

Peace,
Joe Tall

[Joe Tall]

pokenum -h qs 8s - 5c 5s - ah ac -- 5h 2s 9s
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 9s 2s 5h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs 8s 248 27.46 655 72.54 0 0.00 0.275
5s 5c 603 66.78 300 33.22 0 0.00 0.668
Ac Ah 52 5.76 851 94.24 0 0.00 0.058


Now that I think about it maybe the SB should lead the turn if a blank hits hoping to freeze the BB and MP, you think? Fat chance of that at this table.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[morgant]

if there were not set the sb is a big dog to an overpair that was what i referring to. this is exactly what i am trying to explore....how much of a standard play is it to bet draws such as this and how hard, i feel these plays have become routine and well it is obvious that you and i are the main suspects in this hand, i was trying to pound you for it. so the flush draw was no secret, so i am asking with a flush draw and the odds against you, why put in extra bets? when the flush hit the river action stopped as it would have if the flush came on the turn, so is it a long term profitable play to jam it because the numbers are against the spade hitting, especially with one potential out in the sets hand. i really like this hand, if this were a normal stakes table would the action have played the same?

[rharless]

OK, I'll give it a shot.

Flop:
SB (Q8s) bet... a bit for value, a bit to clean up pair outs, but mostly for info, who knows, maybe they fold
BB (AA) raise (could call to pop the turn, but I wouldn't with two opponents, one who likes his hand enough to bet and then the other who suspiciously open-limps, which can be warning signals at this table)
MP (55) 3-bet; 3-betting is done on this table with much less than a set, and one of the two blinds is possibly on a spade draw so might as well get the max from them
SB (Q8s) cold call -- set up for a turn C/R if flush arrives b/c 2+2ers are so afraid of not-value-betting that c/r'ing a flush is easier than normal at this table
BB (AA) cap -- could easily have the best hand here

Turn:
SB (Q8s) check
BB (AA) bet
MP (55) raise
SB (Q8s) ugh, getting 5:1 so call but really hope BB doesn't three-bet; if spade comes on river, bet b/c no one will fall for C/R after this cold call
BB (AA) call, check-call the non-A river

[Joe Tall]

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs 8s 380 38.38 610 61.62 0 0.00 0.384
Ac Ah 610 61.62 380 38.38 0 0.00 0.616

Is this what you mean by BIG?

[morgant]

otay, so big might be a bit of a streeeeeeeeetch.

[Joe Tall]

[Joe Tall]

I feel you agree that I (the SB) can not fold.

I feel you agree that my read that there is no higher flush draw, "limping in" here is valid.

Knowing both of these facts do you think that calling 2 cold twice is a good play? Do you think that if I called 2 cold twice that if a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] hit the turn would I be able to get into a raising war?

BTW, I think the AA hand played horribly. I knew you had a set on the turn, no doubt.

Peace,
Joe Tall