Pair of tens overplayed

[spamuell]

[ QUOTE ]
A combination of hands that adds up to three or four overcards and two suited hands is not good news. Yes, everyone else may be less favored than you to win but if their percentages add up to 80 and yours to 20, is it really worth paying more than you have to for the flop?


[/ QUOTE ]

I am going to paste here some tables from twodimes, demonstrating that TT is profitable against 3 overcards/suited hands. I hope these are decipherable:

Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ks 473722 34.56 878859 64.12 18173 1.33 0.352
Ac Qc 320353 23.37 1032228 75.30 18173 1.33 0.240
Ts Td 558506 40.74 807371 58.90 4877 0.36 0.409

Here, against 2 premium hands, TT is a very big favourite.

However, these hands are not all that likely because we know that the limper likes to limp a lot, and is liable to be playing a speculative hand which isn't nearly as good as AQs.

Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ks 562124 41.01 803044 58.58 5586 0.41 0.411
Qd 9d 314405 22.94 1050763 76.66 5586 0.41 0.231
Ts Td 488639 35.65 876529 63.95 5586 0.41 0.358

In this case, although TT is not the favourite to win the hand, it will still win over 1/3 of the time, which against 2 opponents is all that is needed to make it profitable. Also consider at micro-limits that players love to chase that overcard down to the river, which is really just peeling notes off their bankroll and putting them into your hand.

What about if that limper has got a lower pair than TT and the raiser has AKo?

Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Kh 495183 36.12 871364 63.57 4207 0.31 0.362
7d 7h 249334 18.19 1117213 81.50 4207 0.31 0.183
Ts Td 622030 45.38 744517 54.31 4207 0.31 0.455

Once again TT is a massive favourite, and definitely 3-bettable.

Obviously these examples are contrived, but the only way that TT is really in trouble is if it is up against AA-JJ and against a loose raiser this is very unlikely. Even against a normal player or even a tight one, a raise from the CO could easily be AK-AJ suited or possibly not, or KQo or KQ-KJs. Because of the likelihood of all of these hands, it is definitely a good idea to 3-bet with TT, for value. Also, AA and KK will probably cap, and if much resistance is felt on the flop, our hero can get away from the hand.

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that trying to thin the field out is a good reason to raise. However, I think the key here is still "micro limit". Good luck effectively removing opponents, especially with two people already having put money in the pot and the blinds yet to act.


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Unless one of the blinds wakes up with a very strong hand here, it doesn't really matter whether they call or fold, because their folding maximises your chances of winning the pot, and if you make it 2 more bets, their calling will often be a mistake because they are over-protective of their blinds.

[ QUOTE ]
You're right that sometimes an overcard will not fall and that's great except that if the board comes all under ten, you have no reasonable hope of losing the Aces and JQ hands for one small bet or even a check raise since they will almost certainly all put one more in to see the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the board comes all under 10, the best scenario for you is that overcards are calling, because even though they will spike one of their cards sometimes, it is still +EV for you. (Also, checkraising from the button is usually quite difficult [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]).

Although a lot of the time you will not win with TT, I really think that it is important that you 3-bet it in position, it is a hugely +EV hand, so why not try to make as much from it as you can?

[JDErickson]

[ QUOTE ]
So, would you have capped if it came to you reraised? My issue is the three-bet, not any raise with TT. If I'm wrong here and a three-bet is always called for in this situation,

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BTF yes I would 3 bet everytime (except rare circumstances, player reads, etc) In this hand I would have called the cap and led out on the turn. If I'm raised then I will consider slowing down.

I try and play them like J's. Play until you are sure you are beat. Don't assume your opponents can beat them every time.

I will research your question on the 3 bet statistics. I have to dig into Poker Tracker for that one.

Jim

[JDErickson]

Spaceace,
Here is all the info I can find on TT

Seen 83 times out of 16285 hands
Win 53% of the time
Won unimproved 26 out of 44 times I won. ( consider unimproved as no other T showing up on board during hand. 2 pairs TT and XX I considered unimproved for this case).

Jim

[Ed Miller]

MP1 limps (he limps a lot)...folded to CO who raises (CO raises with most group 1-7 hands from any position)...

Doing anything but 3-betting with your tens here is absurd. You have a powerhouse hand against a weak limper and a very loose raiser. If you think 3-betting is overaggressive, then you seriously need to review your preflop play.

[Ed Miller]

I'm sorry SpaceAce, but cold-calling with tens here is just plain bad poker. You really should reread the preflop section of HPFAP.