50-100 Top Ten worst folds of all time

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
i edited my message because i felt it was rash and stupid what i initially said. sorry for that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Guilty here too. I accused mike l. of smoking strange plants. Then, I realized the flop was paired.

Still, he probably was smoking strange plants. I should re-edit my post and put that back in.

[shemp]

If he typically has, 10, 7, or 0 outs, I'd estimate it as
approaching a 2 big bet mistake. Doesn't that qualify
as huge?

[mike l.]

maybe you are better at EV calculations then me. i dont see how it's anything other than close between a fold and a call. can you explain how you get 2 big bet mistake.

[Dynasty]

Let me try this a second time.

Despite the paired flop, there's no way I'm folding here.

The pot has 12.25 big bets in it when the turn action comes back to him for three bets. So, he's getting 6.125:1 to call. Unless you're putting somebody on a full house or better, folding is a very poor choice. Even when he has just 7 outs (5.57:1), he's got the proper pot odds to call. If the turn is guaranteed to get capped, he's getting 5.08:1 from the pot.

Sometimes he'll have just those seven outs. Sometimes he'll have no outs. But, there will be lots of times when he has all nine flush outs and many times when he has an addition three Ace overcard outs.

In order to make a fold in this hand good, you have to have a very specific read on a player which says you are drawing dead on the turn. Our hero didn't have that read so it's a bad fold.

[shemp]

Maybe you underestimate the chances he's drawing dead. It
looks like the blind has an overpair or a set and that
the button has an overpair or set. You hold AQ and need
them both to hold overpairs -- and JJ and TT don't seem
very likely. And if it's an overpair in the big blind, you
almost need it be exactly QQ.

There are other possibilities, yeah, but you seem pretty
strident about how live he is.

[mike l.]

youre confusing me here man. first you say his fold is a 1 big bet error (that's a pretty big error!) and now you say dynasty underestimates the chances he's drawing dead. so which is it? a call or a fold?

[shemp]

Sorry. I think I've been consistent. I like Dynasty's
analysis but was quibbling. I think the chances that you
are drawing dead are big -- that's why it is a 1 BB error
immediately (weighing cases of 3, 2, and 0) -- see, I'm
weighing the zero heavily. I'm guessing (unfairly?) that
Dynasty would weigh it differently.

An (immediate) 1 BB mistake is huge. You should call. I am,
I confess, WAGging a bit.

I also think the pre-flop and flop play deserve some
discussion.

[Franchise (TTT)]

Why's everyone so adamant about 12 outs, and not 15? Is it that foregone that his Q is no good to AA/KK/QQ or 99/88? Couldn't JJ/TT play the same way (or who knows, maybe even some shocking garbage like T9s), given it was 3 bet before the flop? It's a pretty big pot on the turn, and his opponents could be making a move with a flush draw, top pair, top two, who knows... While that's not a great cross-section of hands ahead vs hands behind, I still think giving the Q's some consideration is worthwhile.

That said, I'd agree that somewhere in the 9-12 outs range is a good estimate of his probabilistic outs, so it's an easy call. It just seems odd you've all dismissed the Q so quickly... am I the only one that thinks it could be remotely good? Would anyone call a bet or overcall if the Q hits?

[andyfox]

I'd be more apt to consider the Q as an out if there had been more flop action. The bigger the pocket pairs the more likely they're going to wait for the turn to try to get someone out.

[ML4L]

Hey PokerPrince,

I don't think that the fold was terrible on the turn. Crunching the numbers as Dynasty did shows that you probably should have called, but it's close enough that one can't be faulted for folding in the heat of battle...

I am, however, wondering why you didn't raise the flop when you decided to play on? I feel that a raise here would put pressure on the preflop 3-bettor and probably give you a better idea of the hands that you might be up against. A flop raise also helps to set up a bluff or semi-bluff later in the hand (or might even buy you a free card if decide to check the turn after picking up a heart draw). Anybody have thoughts on raising the flop?

ML4L