Turned Set, Raised on the River

[Bob T.]

I would go ahead and three bet here. The only way you lose this hand is if he capped it, headsup, on the turn with a draw. If he caps it again, I call, and then feel silly when he shows me a better hand, but I really suspect that he has a set, and you must have a bigger set.

[Bob T.]

No, You aren't missing something. Even if JohnShaft had a pair of Queens or Jacks, the button only had 15 outs so he would be about a 1-2 underdog. In the actual case, he was much worse off, being about a 1-5 underdog. The button won, but I don't like his play.

[JohnShaft]

Noticed one thing in your first reply Michael.
I now put you on Jacks and I have more outs. You cant push me off this hand. I might as well cap my nut flush draw. You need a Jack.
You didn't misread the hand did you? If I had Jacks I didn't need a Jack. He would still have been drawing to 15 outs. It was him that needed to hit the river.

If you didnt turn a set, and the button waited for the expenive street to show the true value of his hand, would you still call if you didn't turn a set? Especially after the way the hand got played until this point. Remember he did reraise preflop.
I wouldn't have 3-bet the turn if I didn't have KK minimum, so no. With a smaller PP (say JJ/QQ) I'd have called the first turn raise, and called the river. Like I say I ain't folding any hand I play this way at this point. If I 3-bet the turn I ain't folding for sure.

So it looks like I have a very big (KK+) pocket pair, or I have even that beat
I have a difficult time believing you have that hand since you did not reraise.
I may have called the preflop 3-bet with AA (or KK) for deception. I've done it before. If I cap it preflop my 'steal raise' don't look so stealish anymore. I'd be less likely to call for deception with another opponent in but it's still possible (though I agree prolly less than 25%). My point isn't so much I have KK/AA, it's that when I 3-bet the turn I obviously don't fear YOU having those hands (and given the action it's easy for me to put you on those) so I must have something pretty damn big... (In other words it's likely that some of his Ace-King outs aren't outs...)

In reality he had 7 outs, was over a 5-1 dog, and put even money in...
Yes, however look at the implied odds. He collected 4 big bets from you on the river.
I agree with this, and it was one thing I thought of at the time. However he only collected TWO Big Bets more by capping the turn. As I'd have bet the river and called the raise anyway...
[So he got 3 Big Bets on a 5-1+ shot. Still the worst of the money even with the couple of extra river bets]

Sometimes you use the pass to set up the run.
Or if you're the Bears you use the run to set up the run.

[Mike Gallo]

Many of you have brought up good points.

Thanks

Michael

[Homer]

Re-raise. It's much more likely that the button waited until the turn to raise his overpair than it is that he has something like AKs or AQs. Do you really think he would cap the turn with nothing but a draw?

-- Homer

[Louie Landale]

As for the "quality" of his turn 4-bet:

[1] He may just be hyper aggressive.

[2] As I suggested he may figure you for a light turn 3-bet and MAY fold to a 4-bet. Now the fact that YOU will never fold for any single bets once you 3-bet the turn (i.e. you have a hand that can beat AA) doesn't mean he knows that. Lets not confuse what he "should" be thinking with what is "is" thinking. Also, dare I suggest to say, lets not confuse what YOU are thinking with what HE should be thinking.

But back to the river: I would have put him on a big draw such as QsJs when he raised the river, and would just call.

- Louie

[Ed Miller]

3-bet. Your boy has 99. While I suppose he might go nuts if he picked up a flush draw, I think 99 is much more likely.

[JohnShaft]

Glad you agree with me mk (and Homer and others).
I must admit I didn't even hesitate before clicking (re)raise.

Shame he "went nuts" with the draw though.
Curses! Foiled again! [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[Ed Miller]

Here's the thing, his cap with the flush draw against a set is -EV even if he knows you will go 4 bets with him on the river every time he hits. So in the end, his play deceived you, but it was still worse for him (and therefore better for you) than if he had played straightforwardly.

[JohnShaft]

Now the fact that YOU will never fold for any single bets once you 3-bet the turn (i.e. you have a hand that can beat AA) doesn't mean he knows that. Lets not confuse what he "should" be thinking with what is "is" thinking. Also, dare I suggest to say, lets not confuse what YOU are thinking with what HE should be thinking.

Couldn't agree more Louie. I should write that down and pin it on my monitor. Seriously.
I've long had a tendency to assume my rationale to opponents by default (imagine how that served me at the .25/.50 tables! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])
I'm slowly starting to cast it off I think.

But. On the nature of betting and 3-betting the turn headsup and folding to the river bet it's not so much that I don't do it, but more the fact I don't recall having seen anyone ever doing it (my experience is solely online <=5/10). Maybe a total thief-maniac who finally gives up on his re-steal, which I most certainly am not.

I was thinking these where the type of plays (3-bet fold to cap) I should now start to consider. I must admit I don't get the logic in them overmuch yet (at the limits I've played)

If people are going to routinely play this way against me I don't think I'm going to learn either.
I simply run into too many maniacs "trying to knock me off hands".

BTW his QJs seems a "bigger hand" but it's a mixed blessing. If I have KK/AA he's only got the same outs as AKs has if I have QQ/JJ. [Admittedly unknown to him it would fair much better against my set]
And I wouldn't have put him on a preflop reraise with QJs anyway.
My read of him was he wasn't an overaggressive player, and he probably knew enough to know I'm *reasonably* tight-solid (well that's what I like to think [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]).