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#11
11-01-2005, 12:05 AM
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Re: Late PCA $650 Satellite Hand vs Bugstud
I think that it's a hand like 53s or AA-JJ / AK. [/ QUOTE ] that's more or less what I meant by my comment. you may even cut JJ off that, I dunno. I think him opening the 3rd time has me more inclined to coldcall with most middling holdings...but I hadn't thought about that one too hard. 
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#12
11-01-2005, 02:16 AM
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Re: Late PCA $650 Satellite Hand vs Bugstud
[ QUOTE ]
I think that it's a hand like 53s or AA-JJ / AK. [/ QUOTE ] that's more or less what I meant by my comment. you may even cut JJ off that, I dunno. I think him opening the 3rd time has me more inclined to coldcall with most middling holdings...but I hadn't thought about that one too hard. [/ QUOTE ] This is what I am most disappointed about -- at the time I had you re-raising with anything playable + some pure bluffs. If I had taken the time to think about it I would have come to the conclusion that you are calling with a lot of those hands and that in your non-bluff range are only a couple of hands that will fold. It's probably still a close push, but definitely not a no-brainer...
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#13
11-01-2005, 04:45 AM
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Re: Late PCA $650 Satellite Hand vs Bugstud
This is such a great hand. Everybody says Bugstud's range is incredibly wide here, but that's crap. You guys know each other. Jameson knows you aren't particularly nutty, even with the three raises and you know he can be, and you both know each other know this. This isnt a button v blind or CO v button situation either. You are both in MP and both with very tricky stack sizes. You make a standard raise, and he makes a small-standard reraise. I think in a normal tourney its an easy push, but here you only need to get to 10th and its much much closer. I'm going to suggest an interesting play here that I would never ever ever do in a normal circumstance. You have to call 3600 into a 9800 pot. I'm actually gonna just call here. Its like the perfect storm. He's pretty much never making this raise with a worse A (I dont think he does it with AQ here with his stack) so the chances of you getting bet off the best hand if you both missed are greatly reduced. Also, if he's on a pure bluff your call preflop/check flop with make him crap his pants and he very well may decide to check behind and give you another card. If you hit and he has AA so be it, or he has the case K so be it. If you miss you check fold and still have 14k which honestly given the stacks in the sat isnt all that much different than 17k. You would need to hit 36% of the time to make this right pot odds wise, and you only hit 30%, but I'm willing to take that hit to protect my stack and hopefully make another bet on a cr when I hit here.
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#15
11-01-2005, 07:53 AM
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Re: Late PCA $650 Satellite Hand vs Bugstud
[ QUOTE ]
Awesome analysis. Its funny when you hear MLG actually not say "push". Oh and I agree FWIW. [/ QUOTE ] agreed. I think when I'm not drunk I'll post colson's hand from the tourney where a similar conclusion is probably best.
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#16
11-01-2005, 11:41 AM
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Re: Late PCA $650 Satellite Hand vs Bugstud
I started to do a pretty in depth EV analysis of your play vs. pushing given a narrow range for Bug. I gotta get to work, though, so I'll finish it there and have it up in a few hours.
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#17
11-01-2005, 01:59 PM
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EV of the Push
[ QUOTE ]
I started to do a pretty in depth EV analysis of your play vs. pushing given a narrow range for Bug. I gotta get to work, though, so I'll finish it there and have it up in a few hours. [/ QUOTE ] Hopefully there aren't any huge mistakes, but the EV of the push is much lower than I originally anticipated: Assumptions: Bug's reraising range: AA-QQ AK 56s, 45s (two random bluffing hands) Bug's calling range: AA KK QQ half the time AKs (only two combos since DE has AKo) Given these assumptions, Bug folds to a push 18/32 times. 3/32 he calls w/ AA (DE has 10% equity of total pot t42,140) 3/32 he calls w/ KK ("" 30% equity) 3/32 he calls w/ QQ (45%) 2/32 he calls w/ AKs (47%) 18/32 times he wins t10,050 = +EV of t5653 3/32 times he has 10% in t42,140 = +t395 3/32 times he has 30% in t42,140 = +t1175 3/32 times he has 45% in t42,140 = +t1763 2/32 times he has 47% in t42,140 = +t1238 total +EV of t10,224 3/32 he loses 90% of t42,140 = -ev t3,527 3/32 he loses 70% of t42,140 = -t2,743 3/32 he loses 55% of t42,140 = -t2,155 2/32 he loses 53% of t42,140 = -t1,395 total -ev = t9,820 So total +EV of around t400. Virtually nuetral given the stack sizes and the risks involved. Obviously, if Bug folds AKs the EV goes up. If we give him more combos of bluffing hands the EV goes up (but 25% seems about right). If he folds the AKs, the EV goes up to around +1200 (a little more than 5% of his stack). Obviously, if we stipulated that Bug's range didn't include any 'squirrley' hands like 54s, then a push would be slightly -EV. The EV of Mike's play of calling and hoping to hit a pair and chraise or ch-fold if we whiff or hopefully get a freebie on the turn would require a much more in depth and detailed analysis complete w/ wild assumptions combined with uncanny accuracy to the right of the decimal point that I am unwilling to devote to. Maybe one of the unemployed college students w/ inflated bank accounts can take time away from 53-tabling and excel it out. -SossMan
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#18
11-01-2005, 02:08 PM
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Re: EV of the Push
[ QUOTE ]
Maybe one of the unemployed college students w/ inflated bank accounts can take time away from 53-tabling and excel it out. -SossMan [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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