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#11
10-30-2005, 09:05 PM
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Re: I\'m Lost - A few different options ...
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] he steals with 50% of his hands -- i don't think we can put him on anything on the flop. he will only flopped a pair 33% of the time [/ QUOTE ] He might, statistically, only flop a pair 33% of the time on a random board, but on a 89J board I think that percentage would be much higher. The top 50% of hands (according to pokerstove, roughly 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J4s+,T6s+,96s+,86s+,76s,65s,A2o +,K5o+,Q7o+,J7o+,T8o+,98o) includes pretty much every pair, every ace, every two cards 8 or higher. I'm not going to take the time to count all the combos, but I'd wager it's more than 33%. [/ QUOTE ] exactly! The 33% is an average of all flops. This one is way more likely to have hit our opponent, given his hand range. Surf 
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#15
10-30-2005, 10:28 PM
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Re: I\'m Lost - A few different options ...
[ QUOTE ]
I think the problem is trying to make a 62/24 fold on this board. [/ QUOTE ] good point. Do you therefore recommend simply check-calling, but only when the odds are appropriate? For instance, if a blank had of come on the turn, would you check/fold? I'm honestly thinking that would be a reasonable line. Adam
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#16
10-30-2005, 10:50 PM
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Re: I\'m Lost - A few different options ...
check-call the turn and check-call the river. when you're trying to bluff, the board is way more important than your cards. your thought process was "I have a huge draw, I gotta bluff" when it should've been "the board is so draw heavy and in the playing zone, and I'm against a loose player so my folding equity is almost 0"
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#17
10-30-2005, 10:53 PM
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Re: I\'m Lost - A few different options ...
You mean c/f the river, right? I don't think you're actually check-calling T-hi on this board? I want to edit your post so bad.
Surf
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#20
10-30-2005, 11:05 PM
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Re: I\'m Lost - A few different options ...
if the turn was a blank, you'd be getting 4.25:1 on a 4.9:1 shot, so you'd need about .65 BB in implied odds. You'll have to bet the river and sometimes he'll raise and sometimes he'll fold. I'd say you definitely have your .65 BB though. The other thing is sometimes you'll river a 6 or a T and the action will go check/check and you'll be good...so add a bit to your odds.
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