K8s trips play along - Page 2

private joker · #1 10-27-2005, 06:47 PM

I like a 3-bet here too. The pot is growing to the point where we need to protect what is likely the best hand, and many potential holdings have lots of outs against us. Seeing any broadway card on the turn will suck, and I want to get the money in now.

If, after we 3-bet, it gets capped, then I will check the turn and reevaluate. If our 3-bet gets called, I will lead the turn and reevaluate if raised.

toss · #2 10-27-2005, 06:50 PM

I get the feeling that they'll play the rest of the streets passively against each other so I'm 3-betting this now. Just coldcalling the flop doesn't leave many great options for the turn.

#3 10-27-2005, 07:07 PM

With the reads it feels like we are in trouble, but I like 3-betting and we have to assume we have the best hand until someone let's us know.

Chris Daddy Cool · #4 10-27-2005, 06:53 PM

note: no, mp wouldn't collude like that to protect his friend's hand.

i thought for a second and decided to just call here. (mistake?). UTG coldcalls two which turned my head a little. UTG+1 laughs a little and then folds.

3 way on the turn for 8.75 big bets.

turn: K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img])

plans?

Borodog · #5 10-27-2005, 06:57 PM

UTG better have QJ or I think you're fooked.

#6 10-27-2005, 06:59 PM

Lead the turn. If UTG is slow playing trips, he is probably popping it here which is good to face the 3rd player with 2 cold. If he is drawing, you can't let him get to the river cheaply on a check through. Either way, I think by leading you will get a good idea where everyone stands and ensure that bets are going in when you probably have the best hand.

private joker · #7 10-27-2005, 07:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]

turn: K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img])

plans?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a check-raise is in order. That 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is a holdem card if there ever was one, so I don't see MP taking a free card. He'll bet, so you need to define your hand and charge UTG with 2 BBs.

BWebb · #8 10-27-2005, 08:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

turn: K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img])

plans?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a check-raise is in order. That 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is a holdem card if there ever was one, so I don't see MP taking a free card. He'll bet, so you need to define your hand and charge UTG with 2 BBs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see MP betting unless he has a king. If two people check-coldcall a raise on the flop, I'm pretty sure one of them has a king. I lead the turn.

newhizzle · #9 10-27-2005, 07:10 PM

i kind of like c/ring, but i dont know, im not giving UTG credit for trips yet and id like to face him with 2 cold, mp will probably bet, but im still having a hard time figuring out what hes got and his reason for a flop raise, with UTG+1 out he may give up and check if he dosent have trips fearing a c/r, so betting out may be better, i dont know

id also like to see what UTG does, so a check and see approach may be best, this is a tough one

Borodog · #10 10-27-2005, 07:23 PM

There are a few cases here that could be going on.

1. UTG has a King or TT. You are destroyed, drawing to 3 outs (unless he has KT).
2. UTG has QJ. His draw is probably live, unless MP cold-calls with AK.
3. UTG has a pocket pair (or a ten) and does not believe MP. I find this to be unlikely given a bet, a raise, and a cold call in front of him.
4. UTG has a gutshot. I don't believe this.

A. MP has a King or TT. Any King he cold-calls with likely has you destroyed.
B. MP has a pocket pair (or just a ten) other than Tens and was raising because he suspect UTG+1 had no king or higher PP.
C. MP could have QJ I suppose and still think UTG+1 is full of it, and is trying to take the pot away from him on a semi-bluff.

You need to assign probabilities to each of these and then figure the total probability that you're ahead.

I'm going to assign probabilities like this (completely out of my ass):

1: 45%, 2: 45%, 3: 10%.

A: 20% B: 70% C: 10%

Feel free to argue with these numbers.

One thing to remember however is that UTG and MP can't both have a King. So I feel like we're good here around 45% of the time. Your numbers may vary, but I certainly think we're ahead more than 1/3 of the time.

We don't want to let the turn check through. I bet the turn and see who, if anyone, raises. But this is going to look really funny since we didn't 3-bet pre-flop. And UTG flat calling may not tell us anything. He's either drawing or could be letting in MP behind him.

Edit: I really dislike checking the turn because, as you can see from my numbers, I think a significant fraction of the time MP does not have a King. Hero's calling two cold on this dlop is HIGHLY suspicious.