Atlanta vs. Miami (November 6) - Opportunity Knocks in a Big Way - Page 2

Easy E · #11 10-25-2005, 04:45 PM

We'll have to wait and see. The last one of these I jumped on, I was smacked around on.

scott8 · #12 10-25-2005, 04:47 PM

Too bad Atlanta didn't lose those games to Philly and NO, which they probably should have, then you would really have a nice line [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

YoureToast · #13 10-25-2005, 04:49 PM

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Sure, and I'm genuinely interested to see what you have to say. I believe that the last time you flagged a Falcon game as a "Good Opportunity" it was to predict a 20-pt win over Minnesota, which wasn't so obvious in Week 4. Not to mention I admire the chuztpah in taking on the majority of the gambling population.

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Here's something I'll add. I graduated from Tulane Law School in 1995. During those years, I became quite a large Tulane Green Wave hoops fan. I went to all their home games, read everything about them, watched all their away games, etc. As a fan, I became very much "in tune" with them and I became uniquely knowledgable about their psyche, their injuries, their attitudes, etc. As a result, I was supremely accurate in knowing when it was likely that they would have a very good game or a very bad game. I knew the matchups (particularly in Conference USA, where they played the same teams multiple times) and could predict when it was likely they'd not match up well or when the matchups were good. This is something I think you can only do when you are a true fan and you follow a team with a great degree of passion. I used to follow the lines and kind of kept track of how I did (I couldn't bet b/c I was a poor law student), but that experience taught me a few important things: 1. sportsbetting (particularly college hoops) can be profitable and 2. to have the greatest edge, you need to be in tune with more than stats. Pro football is much harder, in large part because players are less prone to emotional let downs, although they clearly exist. But many things are the same, including matchup analysis and general team trends. Also, and maybe most importantly, by being closely in tune with an NFL team, you can really understand how injuries affect the team and you can really know the severity of injuries. (See the thread where I knew on the Sunday before New England that it was unlikely Vick would play). This is real and useful inside information that the average NFL fan or bettor can't possibly see or know. And this is also how big opportunities can be found when the average bettor can't find them. I haven't been right about the Falcons all the time, but I think my analysis in each case has been pretty accurate. I look forward to following this up with a more thorough analysis of why they are NOT overrated.

YoureToast · #14 10-25-2005, 04:52 PM

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Too bad Atlanta didn't lose those games to Philly and NO, which they probably should have, then you would really have a nice line [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

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Actually, I don't think so. I think if they had lost both of those games, their confidence would be much lower and, as a result, they wouldn't be so "underrated."

By the way, its also too bad Vick got hurt in the Seattle game and didn't play in the New England game. Maybe they'd be 7-0 and I'd be pounding Miami!

CCx · #15 10-25-2005, 05:05 PM

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perhaps Matt Schaub should start and Vick should be moved to a slash-type role

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They might never lose another game if this were to happen.

#16 10-25-2005, 05:14 PM

I can't argue that. I feel the same way when it comes to betting on the Leafs.

scott8 · #17 10-25-2005, 05:56 PM

Ah! So it's a confidence opportunity [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

#18 10-25-2005, 05:57 PM

Well of course everything depends on the line that comes out. If you are arguing that the Falcons are ready to romp Miami then I maintain my position that it probably won't happen. If you are arguing that everyone's opinion on the Falcons will be low and so the line will be skewed towards favoring Miami, then I agree that a play on the Falcons could have value.

YoureToast · #19 10-25-2005, 07:46 PM

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Well of course everything depends on the line that comes out. If you are arguing that the Falcons are ready to romp Miami then I maintain my position that it probably won't happen. If you are arguing that everyone's opinion on the Falcons will be low and so the line will be skewed towards favoring Miami, then I agree that a play on the Falcons could have value.

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Yes, I believe there will be value in line.

VarlosZ · #20 10-25-2005, 10:15 PM

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Sharps think Atlanta is overrated . . . Squares moreso think Atlanta (and Vick in particular) is overrated.

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Huh? If everyone thinks that Atlanta is overrated, then who do they think is doing this overrating?

(By the way, Atlanta is overrated. Vick is still the most inaccurate starting QB in the league, and their defense has taken a step back from last year.)