Falcons: Weekly Analysis (Big opportunity here) - Page 2

YoureToast · #11 09-28-2005, 09:04 AM

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Are all of the Falcons DB's getting healthy this week?

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It looks like it. Although keep in mind we lost Mathis our nickle corner for the year after the Philly game. He was a valuable player, but we think we have that position covered with the acquisition of Chris Cash, as well as Rossum and Christian Morton. Webster, our "other" starting corner, was hurt against Buffalo (and he has a history of being hurt) should be back. DeAngelo Hall was hurt in Buffalo, but he came back and played. As of right now, both should start as well as Brady Smith, starting DE, who is key to the Falcons pash rush and run defense. We should know more for sure after practice on Wednesday. Overall, relative to the Vikings, and many other teams in the league, I think the Falcons are in pretty good health-wise.

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because youre typing "we" and "our" in every other sentence as if your making these decisions with Jim Mora Jr. makes me question your bias to this game..

PS i am drunk tho

gl though [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

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Here's how I'll put it. Yes, theres a degree of bias. But I am very "in tune" with whats going on with them and honest in my assessment. Take a look at my previous posts and you'll agree I was far from this giddy about those games. The real bottom line here is that the Falcons are clearly the better team -- and the fact that the Vikings are decimated by injuries and the game is at the Georgia dome (which has been very good to Vick and the Falcons lately) just makes the line much too low.

mmbt0ne · #12 09-28-2005, 01:58 PM

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Here's how I'll put it. Yes, theres a degree of bias. But I am very "in tune" with whats going on with them and honest in my assessment. Take a look at my previous posts and you'll agree I was far from this giddy about those games. The real bottom line here is that the Falcons are clearly the better team -- and the fact that the Vikings are decimated by injuries and the game is at the Georgia dome (which has been very good to Vick and the Falcons lately) just makes the line much too low.

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I agree with pretty much everything you've said in this thread, from the bias on down [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Also, in case you were wondering, the Falcons are 8-1 regular season in the Dome with Mora as a coach.

#13 09-28-2005, 06:58 PM

Edited becaue I am stupid.

deadm0ney · #14 09-28-2005, 07:24 PM

This is probably the best line i see for sundays games. I'm on atlanta -5.5.

jedinite · #15 09-28-2005, 08:31 PM

This is my #2 game this week so far - on the Vikes +6.

More analysis to come when I'm done with all my research, but I wouldn't be putting early money on Atlanta...

YoureToast · #16 09-28-2005, 08:32 PM

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This is my #2 game this week so far - on the Vikes +6.

More analysis to come when I'm done with all my research, but I wouldn't be putting early money on Atlanta...

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I hope your wrong, but I look forward to your analysis.

jedinite · #17 09-28-2005, 10:57 PM

well i can't let myself post that big of a statement and not back it up in a reasonable amount of time - but I'm not going to have much time tomorrow to finish my usual research so it might be Friday before I can drop a sufficient response. That being said, here's in a nutshell what I'm seeing early (typing this up between hands of poker so forgive spellling /etc)

The Falcons allowed more than 500 yards passing their first two games, against Philly (understandable) and Seattle (!). Atlanta only settled down the pass defense last week against J.P. Losman, who was held to 75 yards passing - but he's terrible.

Tice is on the hot seat. THis is practically a must-win for him.

Atlanta's banged up secondary.

Vikings a much better team talent-wise than they're playing so far. Last week's confidence booster against NO, they didn't look perfect by any stretch but with fresh confidence they may be able to rumble over a real team.

Atlanta's strong run game against VIkes weak run D. - ATL will be able to run the ball and will likely grind a lot of clock.

Moore is a much better RB than a lot of people (general public opinion) give him credit for. Especially on turf. Despite Falcons solid defense, I think Minn will be able to run due to the strong passing threat of Dante versus the banged up secondary.

Public perception is strongly on the side of the falcons, i think the smart money is fading that public groundswell. People seem to have forgotten how good the Vikes should be with the last three games, and have overvalued the falcons who have looked spotty at best in the last three.

Not saying Minn wins necessarily - but the line I had predicted was ATL -1 so I think there's a lot of value in taking the six points.

Webster · #18 09-29-2005, 07:19 AM

The good news is that EVERYBODY is playing Atlanta( 62%) and you are right. Atlanta could win by 20. OR - more likely - they will win by 5 because they will be so far ahead their "D" can give up a few and still win.

This is a Bridgejumper play! Minn +5.5 (I got +6)

Bridgejumper - formally LineBreaker - 60% ATS 13 years

mmbt0ne · #19 09-29-2005, 04:07 PM

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Atlanta's banged up secondary.

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...is back to where it was. They aren't going to be playing Cash and Morton again this week, it's back to everyone except Mathis, who is out for the year.

And what about the fact that Minn just lost their starting safety for the year? And Darren Sharper is questionable, and so is nickle corner Brian Williams with the same injury.

Two DEs for Minnesota were injured as well (Udeze and Johnstone). They were re-evaluated yesterday, and I don't know what the outcome was, but even if they play, they won't be at 100%. The last thing you need going against Vick is 2 hurt DEs.

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Atlanta's strong run game against VIkes weak run D. - ATL will be able to run the ball and will likely grind a lot of clock.

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Atlanta doesn't JUST grind clock with their run game, they score. Against a week run D, Atlanta will pur up well over 200 yards.

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Moore is a much better RB than a lot of people (general public opinion) give him credit for. Especially on turf. Despite Falcons solid defense, I think Minn will be able to run due to the strong passing threat of Dante versus the banged up secondary.

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The Falcons get Brady Smith back this week. Plus, Davis is getting better and better, meaning more people will get playing time, meaning the front line (arguably one of the best around) will be fresher throughout the game.

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Not saying Minn wins necessarily - but the line I had predicted was ATL -1 so I think there's a lot of value in taking the six points.

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ATL -1 at home is a ridiculous line. Sorry, but no way that is reasonable given what we've seen this year.

YoureToast · #20 09-29-2005, 04:23 PM

mmbtOne, One small correction to your very accurate post. Cash actually will be playing. In fact, I believe that Mora is so enthused about him that he will be taking over the nickle spot instead of Rossum (essentially just replacing Mathis). In other words, it sounds like the Falcons have hardly lost anything at that position, although I realy liked Mathis' versatility.