AK pairs on scary board. Lots of action, what do I do?

[admiralfluff]

I would certainly cap here, as there is a reasonable chance of knocking out UTG. I think you are decently behind at this point, but probably have around 15-25% equity. Factor in the chance it gets capped anyways when UTG gets trapped in the pot, and I think the extra equity you buy from UTG may be worth it. I can't see you getting away from this hand easily on the turn UI, so I don't really know how I fell about leading a blank turn. Against some passive opponents, a flop cap and turn check can actually buy a free look at the river from better hands, as they will often fear a c/r. I would want solid specific postflop reads before doing this, but if I knew both opponents were very passive, and could be scared into calldown mode easily, and I knew that button would not 3-bet the flop with a hand I beat, I might check the turn, expecting to see it check through often. (I would also need to comfortable enough with my reads to check-fold the river if button bet the turn, and I did not hit my straight on the river).

Damn, you guys are crazy! I'm giving serious consideration to a toss here. What cards do you want to see on the turn and river? Everyone seems to think AK is behind in this hand. Good start. If that's true, why is this such an easy cap?? I'm just baffled.

I don't wanna get carried away with reads, cause I could be sooo far off....but here goes nothing:

UTG has some gay hearts or open-end and is NOT folding to even a cap.
MP has KJ, KT or JT.
Button has Q9s -- not hearts.

Mix these hands up a little and see that AK is not drawing too live...especially if some of your gutshot outs are raising their draws.

You don't want an ace, most likely don't want a king, definitely don't want a heart or a 9. Slightly ahead/WB.

I muck. Call me a sissy.


Edit: I'm too slow....I posted this before seeing the turn card.

Edit, Edit: UTG folded? One read down....LOL

[admiralfluff]

Given how loose the opponents are, they could have a lot of different stuff here. Set hands are usually raising preflop, so the only time when we are in big trouble here, is when somebody already has a straight, but the AQ hands are raising preflop often. I ran some Pstove with different reasonable raises, and we are at worst slightly behind.