Brilliance or idiocy. What's your pick?

[baumer]

since he is a solid player, and probably thinks you are fairly solid, he has to put you on at least trip Qs.
is he solid enough to fold his jack or TT to this "obvious"
sandbagging?

anywhere close?

[benneh]

i doubt villain puts hero on trip queens ever. hero cant play this slow on that coordinated board with trip queens unless he's got a monster.

hero's just reppin the flush draw, and I wouldn't be surprised if it worked here, as it's a play I can often pull off.

not sure if i like the small bet though. how much did villain have behind on the river?

[Exitonly]

that put villain all in... 25k on PF, Flop, Turn.. 50k left.

[grandgnu]

I'm not a big fan of call, call, call. I might have pushed pre-flop, since A/K benefits greatly from seeing all five cards, and your opponent might lay down.

As far as things go, I like the bet on the river, since your opponent is showing weakness, having been scared by your constant calls.

I'm going to just fold the flop and cut my losses.. I don't really have anything, and the flop texture is very dangerous.. I am not sure why he checked on the end, maybe was scared of the flush draw

[fnurt]

It's very dangerous to take a player you have no reads on, and decide you can guess his hand based upon the size of his raise. Maybe he raises 4-5xBB with a pair, maybe not, but I don't know any "good players" who are that predictable.

The river bet is simply a guess that he has nothing. The guess might be correct, but I don't see any real basis for it. More often than not this kind of bluff will just get picked off.

Some of us get scared when the opponent flat calls, and we translate that into an assumption that the opponent must get equally scared when we flat call. In general, that only works at a high level. In your typical online tournament, I tend to assume that the other guy is calling me down with garden variety donkey stuff; and that is probably what he assumes about me, too.

[rwanger]

His check is suspect on the river, but I don't see how a "good" player would be betting a hand that you have beat in this way. Do you really think he'd bet tiny on flop and turn, committing 60% of his stack without a hand?

His betting pattern sounds like that of a bad player,
or:
-a good player with a great hand
-a good player with a decent but not great hand (certainly good enough to call the 1/3 pot sized bet of yours on the river).

I'd expect to see AQ (who might have been scared of the flush card, but was willing to call anyway, AND give you a chance to bluff at it), or AJ that made a weak blocking bet on the turn.

I don't know how you have been playing, but from his point of view, there are a ton of draws, and if he has nothing more than high unpaired cards, he's letting you get there VERY cheaply while committing most of his stack.

[MrMoo]

I do have a read on him. I have a read that he is a good player. From that read I can play lines that I would expect him to understand. I can assume that unless he's got a queen, my flat calls are scaring the crap out of him.

The river bet isn't a guess that he has nothing. It's a dangerous but in my opinion +EV line which can only really be called by a few hands, AA, KK, Qx, and possibly AJ, KJ.

Your third paragraph is spot on. Against a typical player I wouldn't even consider doing this. Against this player, I think he's smart enough to lay down a lot of his hands here.

[MrMoo]

Really? Unless he's got a Q, I've likely got 10 outs (any ace, any king, or any ten).

[fnurt]

You missed the point. A good player may respect calls from another good player, but it does not follow that a good player respects calls from an unknown player, namely you.