The Gamble - Hypothetical Coin Flip Situation

I agree with BigSix. Given the way you played up the situation, this is a risk that you have to take.

However, you made an interesting response:
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So even though you know your skills give you a good shot at improving the odds if you start over, you prefer to take the even risk now instead of gambling on an unknown risk in the future

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If you KNOW your skills give you a better shot in the future than they do know, then you would play in the future. You managed to contradict yourself in the above statement by stating that your risk in the future is unknown.

My assumption is this: you are in debt, and remaining in debt any longer will incur a serious injury or an extremely negative penalty in some other respect. You somehow managed to gather a stake to make a big gamble in unfavourable circumstances. It doesn't sound like you have the time to get your life together in any way other than getting rich quick. If you did have time, and your skills were great, then you could grind it out and work off your debt over a long period of time.

I have another hypotheical situation which may help to illustrate what I'd like to say. Consider yourself in the same financial situation described. You are offered the following bet: flip a coin and get heads 10 times in a row and your debt will be removed. This is about a 1000 : 1 shot. By some miracle, you have managed to flip 9 heads and face one more flip. At this point, the challenger offers to retract the original bet. You are now facing a 1 : 1 shot. I fail to understand why you would take the 1000 : 1 shot and not the even money opportunity.

If the ability to remove your debt was based on a single coin flip alone, then the situation would be different, and I feel that was your original intent. Would you flip a coin to get out of debt?

[Bodhi]

This scenario makes no sense because if I split the winnings of a tournament it should be a lot more than my original stake. Therefore, I'm not answering unless you fix it. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Bodhi]

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How do we walk away with only our original stake if it was a tournament and we got down to the final two?




The magic of hypotheticals

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Your poll sucks, dude.

[fluff]

This question is stupid, badly framed, unecessarily long and pointless.

You are in a bad financial situation and desperately need money, would you flip a coin for your entire networth/bankroll if given 1000:1 odds?

There, same question, 1 sentence.

[Yads]

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This scenario makes no sense because if I split the winnings of a tournament it should be a lot more than my original stake. Therefore, I'm not answering unless you fix it. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

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Unless the vig is really high in this hypothetical tournament.

[Tailgunner]

I could very easily have framed the question in a simpler fashion, but I deliberately didn't. I phrased it this way to get folks in a gaming mindset before answering.

The idea came about from a situation in my life... I broke my back several years ago and am in severe pain almost constantly. Major surgery might fix that, but there's a 50% chance of paralysis. Naturally gambles are not truly even in real life, and I've already decided to pass on the surgery as I'd much rather live in pain than in a wheelchair.

It got me thinking though, about the differences in personality between ordinary people, gamblers and poker players. As I expected, the majority of you were unwilling to take the risk without some sort of edge.

This wasn't to help me make any decisions, it was nothing more than satisfying my curiosity and an interesting study of human nature that just shows how standard behavior patterns don't always apply to the type of person you find at the table. An important distinction, IMO. Knowing how to read people doesn't necessarily translate into knowing how to read a poker player.

[KKbluff]

If you risk it and win, you're set for life. Second place pays nothing

You have be getting (if this is a big tourney) at LEAST 10-1 on your 2-1 gamble in this case (+EV). Under these circumstances I would take the gamble.
Under less favorable conditions (maybe 3-1 or 3-2 on my 2-1 gamble), I would probably chop unless I was certian I could not outplay my oppenent.

[dtbog]

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your 2-1 gamble

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[Pepsquad]

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Well, since we're talking about a dead even situation we should probably assume that you and your opponent are of equal calibre. Luck of the draw will pretty much dictate whether you are in a better position next time, so there's an element of uncertainty in taking the "safe" path. Essentially you are postponing and destabilizing the risk. Are you willing to take the balanced chance now at guaranteed dead even, or do you surrender that state and choose the risk of unknown, but possibly better, odds?

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First of all, I kick my own a** for risking everything I had left on a tournament that pays NOTHING for 2nd place. I then remind my opponent of this fact and offer him a 70%-30% split. Hell, if I'm in the crapper financially and 100% would set me up for life then the guy has to think aweful hard even about an unfair split such as this. If he tells me no, flip that river bi*tch. In this capitalistic society I don't believe in such a thing as financial ruin from which I can never recover.

[KKbluff]

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your 2-1 gamble

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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Um...I meant your 1:1 gamble (my mistake).. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]