Thinking too hard or not hard enough... 5/10

[ahnuld]

Are you caspis on party, or is just another good LAG?

[Lucky]

not a good spot for this raise. You have small stack AND small suited connectors which dont get stronger heads up.

If either of thes were different, it might be ok.

[vapourtrail]

hi here are my thoughts

i like the play in general, if called you are likely to get heads up. with all the dead money in the pot, the play is only a small money loser when called, in the neighborhood of -50$ (depending on what range of hands you want to give the caller)

when everyone folds, you win a large pot, so you need to take it down something like 25% of the time to break even. well, how often will you win the pot right there? i dont know. in my experience, this number can range anywhere between 0 and 100%, depending on the players, game conditions, image, all that fun stuff.

if i were deciding on my play, here are some things i would think about:

* you just lost a big pot. how many times have you seen a player lose the majority of his chips, and then push all-in preflop the very next time?

* how often do you limp on the button after many limpers with AA? i'd guess not often. beware, the BS quotient is very high!

* the BB - with such a small raise, it is hard to see him with a big pair if he is a good player. but everyone makes dumb mistakes from time to time. a raise like this could be a pot juicer from a SC or small PP - even so, could he have something like 88, and after your raise, decide his hand is best and isolate?

* there are a lot of limpers to get by. is one of them going to call you with 88? or are they scared money and willing to accept a 40$ loss rather than risk losing their stack?

* the shortie in position - even it gets folded to the shortie, you say he is bad. so how often can u see him just throwing in his money because he feels like it with Q9o? does he like to "gambooool" ?

* and now for the upside - when called, you get to show your beautiful 76s, and it only costs you maybe at most 50$ to do so. image! imo this will work much better if it is completely random, and you didn't just lose most of your stack - that way we get the reaction:

"wow, what a maniac!"

as opposed to:

"i hope i never tilt like that!"

[nWirb]

You bluffed off all your chips on the previous hand, the excellent BB makes a decent sized raise after 5 ppl limps in and he has odds to call anything but an overpair.
I'd say your FE is cloe to 0% here.
But what do I know.