Thinking too hard or not hard enough... 5/10
 

BB is excellent and covers. plays all day every day like a champ. player to my right is suck. always buys for 200.

short has 250 right now. I have 230 after bluffing off my kopecs last hand like a tard.

im on button, three limp to me with 67s, i limp along, sb completes. then BB raises to 40. I have never seen this out of him before.

three calls to shorty who calls. right after i shove it in i feel sick...

fim

Re: Thinking too hard or not hard enough... 5/10
 

fold and rebuy. why play a suited connector if you have no chips...

Re: Thinking too hard or not hard enough... 5/10
 

It doesn't sound like you have much fold equity right now, so I'd call. I would expect BB to isolate you if you raise and you're probably not getting good odds against his range of hands. I don't know what you're referring to by your title, so maybe I'm oversimplifying....

JKratzer

Re: Thinking too hard or not hard enough... 5/10
 

[ QUOTE ]
It doesn't sound like you have much fold equity right now, so I'd call. I would expect BB to isolate you if you raise and you're probably not getting good odds against his range of hands. I don't know what you're referring to by your title, so maybe I'm oversimplifying....

JKratzer

[/ QUOTE ]

give me 25% equity against a hand that calls. how much folding equity do i need to make this +ev?

fim

Re: Thinking too hard or not hard enough... 5/10
 

[ QUOTE ]
BB is excellent and covers. plays all day every day like a champ. player to my right is suck. always buys for 200.

short has 250 right now. I have 230 after bluffing off my kopecs last hand like a tard.

im on button, three limp to me with 67s, i limp along, sb completes. then BB raises to 40. I have never seen this out of him before.

three calls to shorty who calls. right after i shove it in i feel sick...

fim

[/ QUOTE ]

Question : when would you limp on the button with a big hand after 3 callers?

Answer: never.

BB will go through the thought process and autocall, probably with AA.

Nonetheless, you have two live, connected, suited cards, so the push is not the worst play in the world. It probably only costs you a little bit in the long run, given that some small percent of the time BB only has two overs and not a pair.

Re: Thinking too hard or not hard enough... 5/10
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It doesn't sound like you have much fold equity right now, so I'd call. I would expect BB to isolate you if you raise and you're probably not getting good odds against his range of hands. I don't know what you're referring to by your title, so maybe I'm oversimplifying....

JKratzer

[/ QUOTE ]

give me 25% equity against a hand that calls. how much folding equity do i need to make this +ev?

fim

[/ QUOTE ]

There's $60 in the pot before his raise; $220 in the pot after your call. If you raise to $190 more and he isolates, that puts $600 even in the pot, so your EV is $150 after a call, given your 25% assumption. If you take the pot, your EV is 220+190 = $410

If you fold, you come out of it with $220 (I won't discuss calling because that's too complicated).

So, for this to be better than folding, you need 410* %F + 150*(1-%F) > 230.

That comes out to %F > 30.7%.

However, if his %F is 1% (the odds that he doesn't see that he's getting 2-1 with a huge hand or that he loses his connection), you're losing a good amount of money. Fold or call.

Re: Thinking too hard or not hard enough... 5/10
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It doesn't sound like you have much fold equity right now, so I'd call. I would expect BB to isolate you if you raise and you're probably not getting good odds against his range of hands. I don't know what you're referring to by your title, so maybe I'm oversimplifying....

JKratzer

[/ QUOTE ]

give me 25% equity against a hand that calls. how much folding equity do i need to make this +ev?

fim

[/ QUOTE ]

You're pushing 220. If they all fold you pick up 210 and end at $430. If you get called, you have 25% equity in a pot of 210 (the pot before it gets to you) + 220 (your remaining stack) + 190 (what it costs BB to call you). If we assume the pot's HU when you get called, you have 0.25 * 620 = $155 equity.

Let "c" be the % you're called.
If [c * $155 + (1 - c) * 430 - 220] > 0, it's +EV.
155c + 430 - 430c - 200 = 0 when c = 230/285 = 0.81, so you have to be called over 80% of the time for this to be -EV.

A calling range that gives you 25% equity would be AA-JJ, AKs. If you add in AKo then even if we give him AA-66, AKs, AKo your equity's 27%. As you remove over/dominating pairs it only goes up, so AA-JJ, AKs, AKo gives you around 30% equity.

If he's calling with AA-JJ, AKs, AKo then that has to be 86% of his range to make the original raise or you're going to show a profit. You need 32% equity if he's going to call 100% of the time. Again, this is assuming everyone else drops.

If someone else is going to look you up if BB folds, this play obviously goes way way down in EV, but you know that. If you've just bluffed off most of your stack I'd think someone might be inclined to call this "tilting" push, but you're going to have a better guess as to how likely that is.


edit - I have the pot size wrong. By "three calls to shorty who calls" do you mean three calls total? Not four? Otherwise there would have been four limpers to you pf instead of three the first time around. So, the pot's either $180 or $220 when it gets to you, not $210. Doesn't mean a huge change in what folding equity you need, but the $180 figure does raise it by a couple percent. It's still not huge.

Re: Thinking too hard or not hard enough... 5/10
 

I like the idea, just not the raise, make it like 200 to go. Great/cheap image play.

Re: Thinking too hard or not hard enough... 5/10
 

Uh, AZK, did you see stack sizes in OP?

Re: Thinking too hard or not hard enough... 5/10
 

He's got much more than 25% equity for sure. 67s is about 25% against most overpairs, and a little more than 40 against AK/AQ which I think almost certainly call here.