When Does Peyton Become an Option?

[The Armchair]

In a ten team league, I like Manning #4. I'd definitely take him at 5, and it's not even close.

Even everyone takes a RB, you're fine. Need proof? OK. In no particular order (well, there is one, if you can find it):

McGahee, Davis, Jamal, Rudi, Tiki, and Julius Jones round out the first.

The next six picks (before yours) are, say, Portis, Westbrook, Ahman, KJones, and Curtis Martin.

You take Corey Dillon.

The next six picks (bringing you back to your pick) are LaMont Jordan, Carnell Williams, JJ Arrington, Tatum Bell, DeShaun Foster, and Michael Bennett.

You take Chris Brown. Or Jerome Bettis. Or Mike Anderson. Or roll the dice on Ronnie Brown or Cedric Benson. Or maybe you just take Randy Moss.

What I've given you is the worst case scenario. After you take Manning, no one takes anything other than a RB. No one -- not even the three guys who already have two RBs. No one takes Randy Moss or Daunte Culpepper.

In other words, it's not happening. But even if it does, you're fine.

[BadBoyBenny]

4 P. Manning, IND QB
17 T. Barber, NYG RB
24 C. Johnson, CIN WR
37 T. Bell, DEN RB
44 M. Clayton, TAM WR
57 C. Williams, TAM RB


My ESPN public league draft. 4th overall pick.
I didn't realize Mike Anderson was at the top of Devner's depth chart, but to make up for it I got Carnell with the 57th pick.

[The Armchair]

[ QUOTE ]
4 P. Manning, IND QB
17 T. Barber, NYG RB
24 C. Johnson, CIN WR
37 T. Bell, DEN RB
44 M. Clayton, TAM WR
57 C. Williams, TAM RB


My ESPN public league draft. 4th overall pick.
I didn't realize Mike Anderson was at the top of Devner's depth chart, but to make up for it I got Carnell with the 57th pick.

[/ QUOTE ]

QED

[Josh W]

If my math is right, with this scoring, Culpepper woulda outscored Peyton by nearly a point/game last year in this format.

How many points Peyton scores vs. RBs is worthless. If your two options are:

RB
RB
RB
QB

or

QB
RB
RB
RB

then what matters is (QB first round + RB fourth round) vs (QB fourth round + RB First round). IF you can get Deuce in the first and Trent Green in the 4th or Peyton in the first and Carnell WIlliams in the fourth, that's the math you need to do.

Josh

[tolbiny]

"Culpepper woulda outscored Peyton by nearly a point/game last year in this format"

The format always matters- but Culpepper's worst three games last year were all without Moss. a full season without him there is quite a decent range for his production this year.

[Josh W]

I'm certainly not trying to imply that Culpepper is going to outperform Peyton this year. Just pointing out that Manning isn't so far ahead of the fantasy competition.

In this league, with 1 pt. for every 5 completions, a guy like trent green is huge...remember, peyton flirted with breaking marino's yardage record....but green ended up with more yardage than peyton.

Don't fall too much in love with manning just because espn does.

Josh

[DeucesUp]

With passing TD's only worth 4pts, even getting 1 pt per 5 completions, Manning has to be downgraded to #10-15 pick. I wouldn't consider him at all with #5 pick. If your scoring was 6 pts per passing TD I WOULD consider him #5. It seems like a small difference but will probably cost him 5 fantasy points per game (last year it was 6 FPs/game). This moves him (and all QB's) way down in value.

And I hope you were kidding about taking Jamal Lewis with the #5 pick. Getting 1 point per reception, you've got to get pass-catching backs. Tiki, Dom Davis, McAllister should be upgraded while Lewis, Dillon & Alexander have to be downgraded.

If the guys you mentioned are gone, take McAllister at #5 and hope you can get Tiki in the 2nd look for Westbrook (another great pass catching RB) in the 3rd.

[Sluss]

Because last year was record setting, I will slightly drop Peyton's numbers for this year to have him average 25 PPW. Peyton's bye week is week 8 so I would have to select Drew Brees, or Brian Griese (SD vs. KC, TB vs. SF) so I would hope I can expect 20 points that week. The second level of QBs that I would be drafting from in the 5-8th round will average 18 PPW.

For the purposes of this model I will say that out of the RB 5-15 that I can get an average of 17 PPW. From 15-20 I would drop that projection to 12 PPW. Assuming that I would get 8 games of two soild running backs and 6 games with the third stringers.

So in a 14 week season with Peyton Manning the total points scored would be 791 or 56.5 PPW. With a about 8 shots at 59 points total for a week and possible low of 49 points in week 8.

In a 14 week season with a solid QB and three top 15 RB the total come to 728 or 52 PPW. This would be a pretty consitent 52.

So taking Peyton with the 5th pick could net me +3 to 6 points each week.

[Sluss]

[ QUOTE ]
And I hope you were kidding about taking Jamal Lewis with the #5 pick. Getting 1 point per reception, you've got to get pass-catching backs. Tiki, Dom Davis, McAllister should be upgraded while Lewis, Dillon & Alexander have to be downgraded.

If the guys you mentioned are gone, take McAllister at #5 and hope you can get Tiki in the 2nd look for Westbrook (another great pass catching RB) in the 3rd.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't like McAllister this year. I don't like the way they Saints use him when they are losing and between a bad defense, Jim Hasslett and Aaron Brooks I think they will be trailing alot.

Shaun Alexander had only 11 less catches than Deuce and he had more than enough yards and TDs to make up that difference. Yes D Davis and Brian Westbrook are very high on my draft board (7 and 9 respectfullly).

I am a bit stuck on where to place Jamal Lewis. If he is 2000 yard Jamal Lewis he will be scoring 21 PPW, if he is gimpy sore ankle, drug trafficing Jamaml Lewis he is only scoring 13 PPW. I put him somewhere in between with about a 17 PPW average. Which is about equal with Davis and Westbrook, but with a higher upside if he is realy coming to play.

I'm also not a big Tiki Barber fan this year, but only because of his tendency to have a down year after a big year. Sure he'll still catch some balls, but those long TD runs are not as frequent and his TD numbers end up on the low side.

[Punker]

[ QUOTE ]
Benson, a running back out of Texas who was the No. 4 selection overall, showed up at Halas Hall and met with general manager Jerry Angelo, but there were no negotiations. Benson's agent, Eugene Parker, was not present. Benson stayed for about half an hour.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't sound like it meant very much at all.