I've got 77 and 7BBs, 7th to act. Feeling lucky?

[JohnFR]

You seriously push with 23o here? Either way even if you assume he is pushing any 2 here, you are more likely to be facing 2 overs than 2 unders(based on pure probability), you are also more likely to be up against 1 over and 1 under than 2 unders(also based on probability), I am advocating a push over the top, I am not disagreeing with you in that, I am just saying I think 2 unders is more unlikely both in that most players are folding 2 unders except 45s and 56s, and because you will be dealt 2 unders to 77 less likely than 2 overs or 1 over 1 under.

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
Stars 500K 2k/4K blinds, 200 ante.

MP3: 15200
Hero: 27500
SB: 50500 (after posting)
BB: 31000 (after posting)

Hero picks up 77 on the button. MP3 Goes AI for 15200. CO folds. Hero's play?

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume you are trying to possibly keep the BB in the hand here? Against a BB who is very aware of pot odds, I can see calling, and pushing or calling any flop.

Pushing isnt scaring the BB off if you are crushed anyway, so I dont mind trying to entice a call out of him here. I think this play adds CEV and loads of variance (which isnt bad with yout stakc size)

[MrMoo]

How much are people defending at this table? Two steals and you've got 16k (assuming 10 handed). If it's a tight table, I think your safer building your stack this way. Otherwise I call thinking I'm likely ahead of the range MP3 can have and hope for the best.

Couple other factors might change my mind such as avg chip stack at your table as well as rest of the tournament plus the payout structure.

[A_PLUS]

I dont think you are advocating folding, but if you are, I want my 100$ back!

[A_PLUS]

MP3: 15200
Button: 27500
SB: 50500 (after posting)
Hero: 31000 (after posting)

OK, so lets do some math:

If we assume that MP3 will push 80% of his hands here, it gives us a range of

MP+3: 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J2+,T2+,94o+,92s+,85o+,83s+,75o+,7 4s+,64s+,54s

This is where it gets interesting. If we assume that CEV=$Ev at this point, and there is no chance that SB abd BB come along (more on this), then Button would be correct to call (push) with 68% of his hands

or Call hands: 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J2+,T6o+,T2s+,97o+,95s+,87o,85s+,7 5s+,65s (68%).

But the SB and BB are yet to act, meaning he will need a better hand than this to push. So, lets make it 50%.
or (22+,A2+,K2+,Q4o+,Q2s+,J8o+,J5s+,T9o,T7s+,98s)

So, given that range, what hands should BB call with getting >2-1.

To answer this, you need to get fairly complex, given that the side pot is so large.

Needless to say, A8s, is firmly in the BB's range here.


BUT

Not many players will be pushing 50% of their hands here from the button. Correct or not, you just dont see it all that often. So, what is a good range for the button?

I suspect 22+, A2s+, A6o+, KTs, KJo, QTs, JTs, T9s would be close. Given that range, BB has 46.175% equity.

So, on the side pot of 24,600, the BB has 11,359 in equity.

So, for this to be a profitable call, he will need > 12,140 in equity in the main 74,000 pot, which equates to 16.5% equity. Holding the Button's range constant, the only range of hand(s) that MP+3 could have that makes this call -CEV is AA. By adding in KK, A8s has apx 20% equity.

So after way too many words. I think A8s is a call from the BB. Also, I think many players miss a lot of value opportunities in situations like this from MP+3 and BBs perspective.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
MP3: 15200
Button: 27500
SB: 50500 (after posting)
Hero: 31000 (after posting)

OK, so lets do some math:

If we assume that MP3 will push 80% of his hands here, it gives us a range of

MP+3: 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J2+,T2+,94o+,92s+,85o+,83s+,75o+,7 4s+,64s+,54s

This is where it gets interesting. If we assume that CEV=$Ev at this point, and there is no chance that SB abd BB come along (more on this), then Button would be correct to call (push) with 68% of his hands

or Call hands: 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J2+,T6o+,T2s+,97o+,95s+,87o,85s+,7 5s+,65s (68%).

But the SB and BB are yet to act, meaning he will need a better hand than this to push. So, lets make it 50%.
or (22+,A2+,K2+,Q4o+,Q2s+,J8o+,J5s+,T9o,T7s+,98s)

So, given that range, what hands should BB call with getting >2-1.

To answer this, you need to get fairly complex, given that the side pot is so large.

Needless to say, A8s, is firmly in the BB's range here.


BUT

Not many players will be pushing 50% of their hands here from the button. Correct or not, you just dont see it all that often. So, what is a good range for the button?

I suspect 22+, A2s+, A6o+, KTs, KJo, QTs, JTs, T9s would be close. Given that range, BB has 46.175% equity.

So, on the side pot of 24,600, the BB has 11,359 in equity.

So, for this to be a profitable call, he will need > 12,140 in equity in the main 74,000 pot, which equates to 16.5% equity. Holding the Button's range constant, the only range of hand(s) that MP+3 could have that makes this call -CEV is AA. By adding in KK, A8s has apx 20% equity.

So after way too many words. I think A8s is a call from the BB. Also, I think many players miss a lot of value opportunities in situations like this from MP+3 and BBs perspective.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think Button's range is still too wide under your analysis. I mean, look at OP's OP. Yes, 77 is in there, but 22? A2?

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
I think Button's range is still too wide under your analysis. I mean, look at OP's OP. Yes, 77 is in there, but 22? A2?

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think that MP+3 is really going to push top 80% of hands here? I do. So I think this is a reasonable calling range for a average/good player on the button. I think you are making a mistake by not accounting for the stack sizes of the players. The button is desperate here. 7xBB, with antes is a spot where I am pushing any time it is unopened to me in late position, or calling an even more desperate player's push with any reasonable hand. A2 and 22 definitely fit that description. I agree that you may not see it as often as correct play would dictate. It is really dependent on the player. But I would push A2 there, so you cant ignore it from the range

[schwza]

first, i think pushing with 22/a2 would be really bad. that's not really the issue though. it's that very few people would repush with 22 or a2. there were several people in the thread advocating (incorrectly, imo) folding 77.

the best way to do this would be to assign probabilities to hands for button - e.g., he pushes 22 10%, 33 12%, 77 80%, etc. i don't know of any software that does this though.

[A_PLUS]

You can just use poker stove and weight the results.
for range one use 22+,A2+. Then tighten up, etc, etc.
If you take an average of these, you will be essentially be overweighting the better hands.

I agree that you may not see a repush that often with A2. But given a 7xBB stack, I dont think it is that rare.

I would really like to read why you thik this is incorrect?
What range do you but Mp+3 and his <4xBB stack on? What type of range do you think SB and BB call with?

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
first, i think pushing with 22/a2 would be really bad. that's not really the issue though. it's that very few people would repush with 22 or a2. there were several people in the thread advocating (incorrectly, imo) folding 77.

the best way to do this would be to assign probabilities to hands for button - e.g., he pushes 22 10%, 33 12%, 77 80%, etc. i don't know of any software that does this though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting...i like that.

Anyway, i agree, and with A-plus too. I think it is very correct for Button to push with a wide range here, and if he is good and aware then 77 is a nobrainer. I would just lower the likiehood of the range's low end like schwza was talking about. This shouldnt be a polemic on why A2 and 22 suck calling here.