25/50 hand reading post esp. for those in Keres thread

[Shaun]

I'll guess villain has A,8. As for you, well, did you fold?

[warlockjd]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll bite.

SB has J 10


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I'll guess villain has A,8. As for you, well, did you fold?

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Seems some are missing Diablo's point.

You need to be able to put Hat on a range of hands on each street, constantly revising that range based on your previous play/observation of Hat (call flop to steal turn %, call flop to steal push river % and a myriad of others just to name the obvious).

The point is that the oversimplification of this hand in most of the posts on the other thread is phenomenal.

Seems that levels of complexity in any given hand against a Hat type player is vastly underestimated by players who do not play at that $, primarily because they do not have to think on this level to maintain a solid WR and therefore do not.


Apologies if you folks have played with him a lot and are basing these calls on knowledge unstated.

/my $0.02

[warlockjd]

Assuming I'm wrong, those that guess hands, care to share your reads/hand ranges and how they change on each street, etc....would help a poor strugling micro like meself......

[Yeti]

I started to reply but I find these threads incredibly hard and I've got stuff to do anyway.

For now I'll just answer 3). I'm tempted to say I'd need an 8 to call but this will just get me run over in these games. Seeing as he's very aggressive, I'd call w/ AT and above.

do you expect us to have a small range of hands for him having no idea how he has played previous hands?

mines pretty simple. 3 handed, no history on villain but that he's very aggresive, pf raise = anything

pot flop = anything

follow up on turn = anything

is that really what you wanted to hear?

It's obviously not that simple as saying I think he has JT of course but I'm also not going to list 20 combinations of cards he could have.

Based on the fact that D is comparing this to the other hand, I'll go ahead and say you rivered two pair against him, prolly AT.

[turnipmonster]

I'll give this a go, note that I'm doing this street by street and not going back and changing my reads after action on later streets.

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3-handed. Folded to SB, very aggressive, decent player. He (5700) makes it 150 (standard pot open). I (cover) call in BB.


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standard. only thing noteworthy is you didn't reraise pf, not sure if this limits your hand range too much.

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Flop Jc 9s 7d
He bets pot (300). I call.


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this is a relatively standard bet, but villian should realize he will get called a fair amount as lots of hands can call this flop in position. a weak overcard + gutter like AT/A8/KQ is possible, something where he doesn't have enough to check call but too much to check fold. the usual TPGK hands like AJ/KJ.

I would expect hero to raise very strong hands like sets and two pair. hero may not raise with a straight here. other possibilities are things like decent jacks. although it's a flop that offers lots of weak draws, it's not a great semibluffing flop, so hero can call with a fairly wide range of good hands here as well, since a raise might be transparent.

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Turn (Jc 9s 7d) Ah
He bets a little under pot (775). I call.


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here it gets a little more interesting. if villian was bluffing on the flop, this is an excellent card for him to fire a second barrel on, whether it helped him or not.

hero calls again. hero cannot exactly treat this card like a blank, given the previous action. in order to call this with something like JT, hero has to think villian is bluffing this card a fair amount of the time. what bluffing hands can villian have here?

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River (Jc 9s 7d Ah) Ts
He bets pot (2450).


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ok, this is really interesting. usually this bet is a bluff or a pretty strong hand. but there aren't really very many traditional bluffing hands left. most semibluffing hands villian can have had are now either two pair or a straight. by the same token, many hands he put hero on are now also two pair or a straight. I'm suspect of villian betting a hand like AT here, sure he loses money from JT but most other hands he puts hero on are beating him and will call.

have to run, more thoughts later.

--turnipmonster

[Matt Flynn]

I missposted this in the AK thread. Here goes again:


To Kane from the other thread re: Mahatma's bluffing frequency on the all-in bet: I have not played him in >3 months. Back in March I would peg it at >2:1 bluff: nuts but he throws in some medium two-pair kind of hands when he thinks you are weak but calling. You can get a sense of him if you play long enough, but he will get a good sense of you too.

The AK hand posted FELT like one of his uber-bluffs and fit that pattern. If he's got it, so what? In the long run I lose less than the folders. Also, the correct answer to every no limit question is "it depends." Depends is a diaper for old people, often full of a huge load of sh!t. Enumerating degenerative cases sucks. If Mahatma hasn't been doing his overbet thing and is running in medium or low gear, yeah, you fold AK. But trying to run 5-10 longhanded logic against shorthanded aggressive play will get you broke.


In this hand, assuming there's not some overlay issue we're not privvy to that changes everything, Diablo has a draw or a medium hand or both on the turn. Opponent has at least a straight draw or two pair, except sometimes he's on air or a weak pair. The river bet is for real far more than not, straight being most likely, set or two pair with ace still possible. Diablo, unless he hit the straight, usually folds despite the "very aggressive," unless "very aggressive" means often three-street aggressive, in which case Diablo might call with as little as a weaker two pair. Keep in mind the pot lays him 2:1. Please see pages 173-214 for a complete list of caveats and subcases. ;-)

Matt

[Marnixvdb]

here's my shot:

You raised allin and had nuts (KQ). He had a worse straight (8x).

PF and flop don't mean too much.

Turn action is the read. His bet on turn looks as if he has some kind of hand that still needs improvement, shooting for either a fold or a river for a price controlled by himself. If you had a good two pair, a straight or set you'd have raised here as a lot of rivers can destroy your hand. Your call means you are drawing, and i don't think you'd make that call if you'd be drawing thin. So i'd think you have KQ. You can count on implied odds because he is so aggressive, and because there are so many worse straights possible.

I don't think you'd call turn with pair+gutshot as that is a bit expensive and you'd probably have played flop differently with a hand like TJ.

He confidently bets river cause he made straight and thinks you aren't putting him on it, hoping for call of two pair or set, calling a raise because he committed himself.

I doubt i'd call the river without a straight but then again, i wouldn't arrive at river like this if I wasnt drawing to a straight.

Marnix

EDIT: i said flop doesnt mean much, but I take that back. Hise bet doesnt mean much, but your call is starting to define your hand.

[PGarlic]

On the flop I think that you make that call with either a strong made hand (set) or a draw (QT). You know that villian is very agressive so you think he'll keep betting as long as he doesn't face any resistance. If you had a mediocre hand I'd think you're raise to protect it.

On the turn, I don't think you make that call with a draw, so I put you on a set, 77 99 ? When the A turns villian either made his hand and is probably betting the river thinking he has the best hand, or he's still on air and will bluff the river. Either way, with a set, you call planning to extract the most on the river.

Your river action wasn't posted so i can't speculate on your hand on this street. I think villian either has a big ace or KQ. On the flop he makes his continuation bet with both of these hands.

On the turn, With a big ace, he makes his pair and bets it. With KQ, he bluffs the scare card.

By the river, I put him on KQ. I'd think he check and hope to showdown his ace? Of course I don't know either of the players' table images, Which would be helpful.

[JooWish622]

If your opp is as aggressive and capable a player as you make him out to be in your short description of him...

1. Your opp could have hands from 22-66, 88, KQ is a possibility, 8Ts is also in there, so is A8s but to a lesser extent since villian may more likely check-call turn/bet river
2. QT, 8T (although i feel you may have raised turn), TK, AT (not sure what a good turn play is here, more likely it is to raise?), 98, 9T. I cant really put you on a jack since a lot of cards on the turn could get you moved off the pot if your opp is aggressive enough so that rules out KJ QJ, even TJ. Would you normally take just call the flop here against an aggressor with TJ here?

I feel like the worst hand you could call in this spot would be a hand with a T in it because hes likely to put you on a hand thats drawing, and those would most likely be QT, KT as there are more combinations of it. You would more likely play 8T or KQ a little stronger on the turn and flop respectively. On that river it appears that hes trying to move you off a T and could be holding 22-66, however 88 and KQ are likely possibilities. It would be impressive if he showed AJ since two pair on that board is a likely holding for you as well and may be trying to make you make a "tough" call with 9T, but that gets more player dependent...thoughts diablo?

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A number of people analyzed the Mahatma QJ hand in a way that I felt vastly oversimplified the situation. Here's a hand for you to analyze that might turn out to be an interesting exercise. Or not.

Answer the following questions:

1) What range of hands do you put my opponent on (on each street)?
2) What range of hands do you put me on (on each street)?
3) What is the worst hand you'll call the river with if you're me?

Provide any comments re: what you think might be going on in our heads.

3-handed. Folded to SB, very aggressive, decent player. He (5700) makes it 150 (standard pot open). I (cover) call in BB.

Flop Jc 9s 7d

He bets pot (300). I call.

Turn (Jc 9s 7d) Ah

He bets a little under pot (775). I call.

River (Jc 9s 7d Ah) Ts

He bets pot (2450).

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