AQ against aggression - Page 2

WSOP Bound · #11 08-13-2005, 03:49 PM

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you really think at .25/.50 you're bad more than 8 times in 9?

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Well, given your evaluation what can villian reasonably have here.

Hands that beat us: 22, 88, A8, AK
Hands that we beat: A2, AJ (stretch), AT (stretch)
Hands that chop: AQ

I don't have much experience, so let me know if I'm doing this wrong. I omit AT & AJ because I personally think they are quite a stretch. A quick run of the Stove shows:

1,232 games 0.005 secs 246,400 games/sec

Board: 8d 2c As 8c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 33.0763 % 19.89% 13.19% { AdQd }
Hand 2: 66.9237 % 53.73% 13.19% { 88, 22, AQs+, A8s, A2s, AQo+, A8o, A2o }

Bottom line: I seem to have enough to call this down.

WSOP Bound · #12 08-13-2005, 03:54 PM

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I would fold it right here. I know I'll probably be tarred and feathered for suggesting that after capping the flop

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Given this viewpoint should I have respected his three bet on the flop more and just called there? folded? I tend not to think so since capping with position defined villians hand much more once he bets out. But, could I have confidently saved a SB and folded UI on the river?

WSOP Bound · #13 08-13-2005, 04:09 PM

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I'll eat my hat if hero wins this hand.

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Do you prefer hats with Ketchup or Mustard? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] Still not sure if I played this right, but it did work out this time.

Ultimate Bet 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, CO calls, 3 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (9.40 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero raises, CO calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 3-bets, Hero caps, CO calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (12.70 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero calls, CO calls, UTG folds.

River: (15.70 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero calls, CO calls.

Final Pot: 18.70 BB

UTG+1 has 2s Ah (two pair, aces and eights).
Hero has Ad Qd (two pair, aces and eights).
CO has Kc Ks (two pair, kings and eights).

Outcome: Hero wins 18.70 BB.

NateDog · #14 08-13-2005, 04:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'll eat my hat if hero wins this hand.

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Do you prefer hats with Ketchup or Mustard? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] Still not sure if I played this right, but it did work out this time.

Ultimate Bet 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, CO calls, 3 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (9.40 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero raises, CO calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 3-bets, Hero caps, CO calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (12.70 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero calls, CO calls, UTG folds.

River: (15.70 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero calls, CO calls.

Final Pot: 18.70 BB

UTG+1 has 2s Ah (two pair, aces and eights).
Hero has Ad Qd (two pair, aces and eights).
CO has Kc Ks (two pair, kings and eights).

Outcome: Hero wins 18.70 BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Congratulations, you hit a 5 outer. So the LP's flop 3 bet did mean he had you. At least you gave yourself odds to call down with the flop cap.

WSOP Bound · #15 08-13-2005, 05:15 PM

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Congratulations, you hit a 5 outer. So the LP's flop 3 bet did mean he had you. At least you gave yourself odds to call down with the flop cap.

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I posed a question earlier about the flop cap. I wasn't convinced that it was the correct line. I capped so that I could see if villian would lead the turn and he did, so it feels like I paid a SB for information that I didn't use. What would your line be?

#16 08-13-2005, 05:20 PM

Also, when you do eat your hand, please post the digital image on here...
cdl
[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Dave G. · #17 08-13-2005, 10:47 PM

Haha. No problem, I'll head on down to the shop and find a nice, chocolate hat... and no, no pictures will be posted. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Still, though, here you were lucky enough to find a villain that didn't understand that the turn ruined his hand. Most of the time I wouldn't expect this to happen. Since winning money is about making the plays that are successful more than they're unsuccessful, I still think folding this turn is right.

cfjr2 · #18 08-13-2005, 11:38 PM

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Congratulations, you hit a 5 outer. So the LP's flop 3 bet did mean he had you. At least you gave yourself odds to call down with the flop cap.

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did you miss the Q outs?
3xQ, 3x8, 2xA = 8, I would discount the A's tho.

WSOP Bound · #19 08-14-2005, 12:08 AM

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Still, though, here you were lucky enough to find a villain that didn't understand that the turn ruined his hand. Most of the time I wouldn't expect this to happen. Since winning money is about making the plays that are successful more than they're unsuccessful, I still think folding this turn is right.

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You are absolutely right that just because I won doesn't mean I played it right. And although I felt compelled to tell you it was time to eat your hat, I do certainly appreciatte your commentary. The turn is one of two parts that really made me uncomfortable here. The other was the flop cap which I'm not truly convinced was correct either.

It seemed likely that villian had either two pair or a set on the flop. This means that the possible holdings were 22, 88, A2, A8 and 82. We should eliminate 82 up front since almost anyone would fold that preflop. I think that the non two pair or set hands that could play like this are AK and AQ. This leaves likely hands being 22, 88, A2, A8, AQ, AK.

By the turn which seems to be the decision point there are
6 combinations of A2
4 combinations of A8
3 combinations of 22
1 combination of 88
8 combinations of AK
6 combinations of AQ

I'll count all of A8 and 22, 88. One of A2 since it's not as likely that villian is leading the turn when the board counterfits his hand. 1 of AK since I expect a PFR from that hand and 1 of AQ because I also expect a PFR from it.

So assuming that at least one of UTG or CO will stick around until the end by calling down I net:

17BB 1 times (A2) = +17BB
-2BB 4 times (A8) = -8BB
-2BB 3 times (22) = -6BB
-2BB 1 times (88) = -2BB
-2BB 1 times (AK) = -2BB
8.5BB 1 times(AQ) = +8.5BB

This means that by calling down I net 7.5BB on average, where as by folding I obviously net 0. Even by assuming that I call, CO & UTG both fold and UTG+1 bets the river I net 1.5BB by calling down. Is there something flawed in my analysis here? If so please point it out. I'm certainly not used to do this kind of thing, but it's something I'm trying to learn.

Dave G. · #20 08-14-2005, 01:25 AM

Your analysis isn't bad, but it's a bit too straight forward. A lot of people in this thread mentioned the benefit of having 2 other people in the hand. Well yes, it's good to have them putting money into the pot when they don't outdraw you, but some percentage of the time, one of these two people will either have you beaten already with trip 8s (or even a very timidly played AK), or will outdraw you on the end. There's a flush draw on the board, and someone else could have another A and pair their kicker (doesn't matter unless that kicker is higher than 8).

Additionally, if you do catch a Q and someone has something like Q8, or the Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] falls and someone has the flush, you're going to lose a lot more than just 2BB. If you do catch an A and UTG has 88 (which certainly can't be ignored), you're going to lose more as well.

Another thing is that you aren't guaranteed to see a showdown for only 2BB. If someone raises behind you and UTG 3-bets, you aren't getting to showdown at all (I hope).

Rare those all of these occurances might be, combined they aren't all THAT rare, especially with 3 other people still in the hand. They will occur with some probability and that needs to be factored into your assessment somehow. Simply saying that calling down is +EV 7.5BB only tells half the story.

So really, the 2 extra players are actually a double edged sword. Yes their money is good, but it's not all peaches and roses. If you had position on them it would be better, but since one of them has position on you, their disadvantage is moreso.

Given that you are behind most of the time here, and all of these other considerations, I think folding is the correct play.