Bottom 2 against limpers

[callmedonnie]

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The board is pretty rich with combos that might make two pair or a straight. If your opponent has only one big pair, he has a ton of counterfeit outs against you and will probably be correct to call a turn raise, but raising charges the draw and actually gives your opponent the chance to make a bad fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I also argued for a turn raise, but the logic you state here has me persuaded the other way. Yes, you give him a chance to make a bad fold but more of a chance to make a correct call. As I said, I thought turn raise was better and so it seems did you, but I'm now undecided.

The only counter logic that has me leaded toward a raise is that just because villain can make a correct call, doesn't negate raising. When you know opponent is on flush draw, you still raise them even when they have odds. So this to me is the same spot.

Through the thread you seemed to waver a little, and turned me from resolute to on the fence. stop being so damned thorough in your explanations, you're killing me.

[W. Deranged]

I think the simplest way to treat this hand is that your opponent is on a big draw. If you thought your opponent were on a flush draw, for example, you can charge him the most by forcing him to call a turn raise.

Here, we have a two-fold advantage:

1. By waiting to raise the turn, we force our opponent to put in the most money when we are likely ahead and he correctly calls. (Remember, we make money when he calls, we just prefer he would fold because he'd be correct to call. Just like in the flush draw situation. We'll never be able to get opponents to fold live flush draws, but we do want to make them pay as much as possible to see them.)

2. Our opponent may not realize how live his draws are and may end up folding where it would be correct to call. In this case, we really win.

There are often situations we can't force our opponent to make a mistake. Here, we just give him a really good opportunity to, while at the same time getting in a bunch of money while ahead even when he does make a correct call. (The key point to remember is that even when he does call we are making more on the hand than he does...)

[callmedonnie]

so we're in complete agreement then on this one. wait to raise the turn. hope a horrendous card doesn't follow.

[centja1]

i'm surprised you guys haven't caught on that i post at least one hand per week where the replies all state that I need to raise the turn.

I think my biggest leak is my turn play when I'm ahead. I'm going to work on getting my turn AggFactor up a little bit.

as for one last question, do you feel like i should fold or call down in the rare instance where i get 3-bet? It seems to me that there are very very few hands that are going to three-bet the turn in the face of my stop n go. JT or QQ and not too many more. How would you handle a three-bet? I feel that when I do decide to get aggressive, i need to be able to back off in the face of resistance and realize when i'm smoked. I know we have four outs to a boat, but those won't be good all of the time when three-bet.

Thanks for all of your help

[W. Deranged]

Yeah,

My turn agg. factor is shockingly high, fwiw.

[I am fish]

You will flop exactly an open-ended straight draw slightly over 6% of the time with a 54 to JT connector.

[centja1]

oops, my mistake. i figured out that we could catch a flop with any two of the 16 cards (JT76) just above and below our hole cards and then didn't remove the combinations that gave us a gutshot or a whiff (J6, for example).

thanks for the correction.

[I am fish]

Fold 98o preflop, Limp with JTo, 98s.