PFR with TT gets 3-bet and capped behind -- confused!

[chief444]

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Your only getting 1:30

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I don't think I've ever heard someone say that before. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Nick C]

For better or worse, I'm pretty sure I would have played the hand the exact same way you did.

I'm also pretty sure you played the hand better than SB did.

[Knoler]

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Never fold a decent 4-flush here.

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Are you telling me that if the flop goes bet, I call, and then raise - reraise behind, you don't drop the hand? Or, do you mean that you'd never fold the 4-flush for just one bet?

The latter I agree with, the former, not so much...

Regards,
-Brian

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
FOLD FOLD FOLD FOLD. The odds are not enough.

#1 6 callers. Someone hit the flush
#2 his set can make someone else's straight, this is 2/4 mind you.
#3 1:23 for the set IF no one has the flush or can draw out or redraw. Your only getting 1:30 on a super dangerous board with a bunch of callers. ALSO what if the flop is raised. There goes the 1:30 now its 1:15. So.....

Id say the odds are closer to 1:60.

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Wtf are you talking about? He's got the 4th highest heart, getting 30-1? This is a place you have to get to the turn, esp. when it's only 1 bet. On the turn, if I don't improve and a raising war breaks out, then I'm gone.

On the turn, you have a weak flush draw, and 3 gutshot outs. You call 1 bet twice. On the river, you have to hope this donk flopped a flush, and is now trying to bet out, or he has a set, or the 9. Getting 25-1, you have to call with the T here.

[Knoler]

[ QUOTE ]
FOLD FOLD FOLD FOLD. The odds are not enough.

#1 6 callers. Someone hit the flush
#2 his set can make someone else's straight, this is 2/4 mind you.
#3 1:23 for the set IF no one has the flush or can draw out or redraw. Your only getting 1:30 on a super dangerous board with a bunch of callers. ALSO what if the flop is raised. There goes the 1:30 now its 1:15. So.....

Id say the odds are closer to 1:60.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey man,

I've been thinking about your post, and it made me decide to do some math. Let's assume that on the flop, I'm always behind, since I probably am. Let's further assume that my math is correct, but that may not be true, either...

Probability that the A K or J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is *NOT* out = (42/45)*(41/44)*(40/43)*...*(31/34) = 33*32*31 / 45*44*43 = .38

So, 38% of the time, I have 9 outs. Let's call it 3.5.

I've got two outs to a set. Maybe someone has QQ. Maybe someone has J9. Maybe someone already has a flush, but maybe I'll end up with a boat. Let's be conservative and call it half an out.

Sometimes I'll hit a runner runner straight. Again, 1/2 an out.

Upon further review -- and I suppose I could have done this myself and spared you all this hand -- the flop call is easy, getting 30:1 with about 4.5 outs.

If it gets raised and 3-bet behind me on the flop, then I can just be done with it, since my pot odds are not as good, and there's a better chance my flush outs are no good.

And I'm not one to think that posting results is a big thing but in this case I'll make an exception...my flush outs were golden. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] UTG+1 turned over 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and I take down the pot. MP1 claimed to have QQ.

Winning this pot was like finding $100 in my pants after it'd gone through the laundry!

Thanks, all, for the advice,
-Brian

[winky51]

All of you are doing the math and thats fine. If players played totally mathematical I would agree. But there are 6 callers. There is no F'ing way his 10 high flush is good or his set. You put your #s into the random hand generator. These people are calling with JTs, 89o, K9s, Axs, Ax.... not Q7o random computer hand.

Do all the math you want with 6 caller someone has a better draw or hand than you, its that simple. Fine 30:1 on the flop what happens if someone raises nehind you and there are a bunch of players left to do so. Now its 15:1 on the flop.

You hit the flush and someone else bets, now what you call down with your T high?

You all are not thibking about the players or the future bets this player is losing most of the time. Poker is not just math math math.

1st you got a reraise and a cap and caller for 2 cold. There is no doubt in my mind between all of them someone has the K or A of hearts. Just between the reraisers it is very likely. about a 56% chance they don't have a heart each. If they are raising they can have anything from AA-QQ or AKs or just AK. Either the A or K of hearts beats you here. Not to mention 5, Q, 8. How many str8s are possible with that Q,8 and his T. People call raises all the time with hands like J9s, KJ, 97s, T9s, JTs (maybe a heart too). So maybe even his Ts are dead. No tens left in the deck.

You think they are all calling the raising with random hands here? Mostly medium suited connectors and high cards. They cant all have pairs 1:16. Maybe 3 at most of the callers/raisers, that leaves 4 others. Soo he is either facing a bigger heart, str8 draws, or his ten is dead, and raises on the flop, and calling down with a weaker hand to the river.

AND 4 people calling that flop?!?!? your beat someone has the better flush draw.

Vs 6 random players that randomly call raises, I say sure the odds are right. But vs 2 reraisers and 4 half intelligent callers of the typical 2/4 no way.

Clear clear fold here despite the 30:1 which are really 15:1 if someone raises.

[Knoler]

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Vs 6 random players that randomly call raises, I say sure the odds are right. But vs 2 reraisers and 4 half intelligent callers of the typical 2/4 no way.

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Did you see the pre-flop action? Three players called three bets cold. I don't think I'd call that half intelligent. As described, these players were truly terrible.

Anyhow, I do see your point, though -- and if these were stronger players, I'd agree with you.

-Brian

[W. Deranged]

Winky,

Realize that the mathematical calculation involving the probability that there is not a higher [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in play has nothing to do with the kinds of other players involved. True, those big cards are more likely to be in play than small ones, but that effect is small and should not distort the 38% number (which I haven't checked, but looks good) that much. We are basically looking at the pure probabilistic chance that there is a bigger hard distributed somewhere in the other cards in our opponents hands.

As for the hand, I'm with Harv and co. The first time I read this, I figured a fold was obvious, but the 38% is really quite convincing to me. If we can perceive 10-13% or so equity purely from the times our flush draw is good, folding here would be quite bad.

I like folding to a bet and a raise back on the flop since it becomes extremely unlikely that the flop gets to three-bets without someone playing a big heart.

[winky51]

#1 I ran this through Pokerstove assumning (QQ) and 5 other random hands. Surprisingly your pot equity was 13.97%.

#2 I ran it though assuming (KK) and the A hearts out. Surprisingly your pot equity was 5.94%

#3 I ran it though assuming (KK, T9) and the A hearts out. Surprisingly your pot equity was 3.34%

#4 I ran it though assuming (KK) and 9 random hands. Surprisingly your pot equity was 13.239%

Now 30 bets. Lets say you hit your flush. 38% of the time someone has a higher flush and they raise the turn or river. Do you call down?

Youd spend 7 bets to win 30, 38% of the time. Is it still worth it? With all those callers I have to assume someone has the bigger flush draw. I assume #2 scenario. 1:17 chance to win.

38% 1:17 (someone has the higher heart)
62% 1:7.5 (only facing KK here and no one has the higher heart.

And there are 5 callers on the flop.

I hate to admit it when I am wrong but your right. Amazed as I was looking at the pokerstove analysis, your right to call. Even if there is a flop raise it seems like your right to call as long as you have the last call.

[winky51]

Buw wait a second. If no one raises the flop and they have a heart AKJ do you call down?

30 small bets
Youd pay 1+2+2 or 5 bets to win 30. thats 1:6