From 4185 to broke in 2 hands.

[tshort]

[ QUOTE ]


***** Hand History for Game 2279344893 *****
NL Hold'em $50 Buy-in + $5 Entry Fee Trny:13491655 Level:9 Blinds(250/500) - Tuesday, June 28, 22:06:27 EDT 2005
Table Table 12122 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: Mystraised ( $4185 )
Seat 4: msnuts3 ( $1700 )
Seat 8: RoyalCrap ( $1375 )
Seat 10: Mulperi ( $2740 )
Trny:13491655 Level:9
Blinds(250/500)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Mystraised [ 5h 3s ]
RoyalCrap folds.
Mulperi folds.
Mystraised is all-In [3935]
msnuts3 is all-In [1200]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Jh, 8s, Td ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Th ]
** Dealing River ** [ Kc ]


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First, I think you probably need to post the previous 5 or more hands. How many hands in the bubble play had you raised? Let's assume your image will drive the guy to call with top 35% of hands. Let's assume those hands will be an average of a 65/35 to your 5 3. You are expected to lose 1,105 if he calls. 65% of the time you will win the $750 pot. This would be a positive EV of approx 100 chips.

Is that worth it when it comes to expected winnings in dollars? Probably not.

[Myst]

[ QUOTE ]
It's nice to have SOMETHING playable if you get called. 53o is not. THis is yet another case of being a pushbot with a stack. Unless done VERY judciously, this kind of play will be a long-run loser for you.

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Well, according to ICM, this is +EV even if he calls with 60% of top hands.

But, that aside, this is the 2nd time Ive done a +EV push according to ICM standards with a huge stack and busted out in 4th. Im thinking that with the high blinds, such moves, while +EV according to ICM, may really not mean much in terms of real dollars. What does increasing my percentage of the prize pool by 7.5% really mean? Does it increase my chances of winning by 7.5%? The way I look at it, my stack increasing by 4100 or 4800 doesnt really mean much in terms of the actual outcome of the tournament.. Im still going to have to win 1 or 2 allins once ITM, and the fact that I have 750 extra chips really doesnt change my position in the tournament dramatically.

What I DO know though, is that I can surely fold my way in the money. I am 100% certain of that to be the case, because the high blinds would have forced players to go all in with their A2, KT/junk hands to clash.

Its in these situations that I think ICM describing +EV situations in terms of percentage of prize pool can only go so far. Gigabet proves this to be the case when he makes moves that ICM clearly shows is -EV. Im buying more and more to the chip power argument, about evaluating whether the risk to your stack is enough to justify the reward (i.e. additional power to your chip stack).

I think in the above case, where I had a +EV push according to ICM, should have been folded, in retrospect, to that rationale in case. The risk of getting called 25-30% of the time and taking even a coinflip or even a 60% chance of winning is NOT enough to justify a stack that will NOT gain any chip power by winning (4100->4850), but loses a helluva lot of power by losing (4850->2600).

My two cents. 3,000+ tournaments, and I finally just starting to understand.

[lastchance]

7.5% of the prize pool is 7.5% of $500 (all the money every player puts in to the game)!!

If ICM says pushing this = 7.5% of the prize pool, I really don't think there's much else that could make me lay this down.

I don't push because there's no way my opponents aren't calling with J6o if they think I'm pushing any 2 at them.

[Bigwig]

I strongly dislike the first push.

[lastchance]

Oh, I should have realized there's no way in hell that this push is +7.5% prize pool equity. You were just making up numbers. So it's a fold.

[Python49]

First push was no good IMO... your hand is awful and you have alot of chips so the risk vs reward here is not worth it. The a/5s is good push.

[vinyard]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, according to ICM, this is +EV even if he calls with 60% of top hands.

But, that aside, this is the 2nd time Ive done a +EV push according to ICM standards with a huge stack and busted out in 4th. Im thinking that with the high blinds, such moves, while +EV according to ICM, may really not mean much in terms of real dollars. What does increasing my percentage of the prize pool by 7.5% really mean? Does it increase my chances of winning by 7.5%? The way I look at it, my stack increasing by 4100 or 4800 doesnt really mean much in terms of the actual outcome of the tournament.. Im still going to have to win 1 or 2 allins once ITM, and the fact that I have 750 extra chips really doesnt change my position in the tournament dramatically.

What I DO know though, is that I can surely fold my way in the money. I am 100% certain of that to be the case, because the high blinds would have forced players to go all in with their A2, KT/junk hands to clash.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am starting to think similarly especially since I consider myself better than average HU player. When I already have 4000 of 8000 chips in play the extra 750 chips don't seem that important to me especially since most players at my tables play far from optimally on the bubble. That and it seems silly to risk 1/3 of my stack with a rubbish hand to increase my share of the prize pool by ~10%.

[wiggs73]

Don't take this concept too far. Folding into the money is fine and all, but if you have the chance to build your stack some more, take it! The problem with the first hand is I think his calling range is pretty wide, especially if you've been pushing a lot in the past few hands. With the stack sizes, I think you have a great opportunity to steal the 2nd stack's blinds at will. I'd fold this hand and concentrate more on doing that.

Like others have said, 2nd hand is fine.

[Myst]

IT depends on the range of hands, but its anywhere from .6% to 1.98% prize pool equity, according to ICM.

I was talking about it in general terms(750 chips extra out of 10,000 chips in play).

[jcm4ccc]

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Could fold 53o in the first one, BB calls a wide range, and your FE isn't high.

Push A5s automatically.

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How is my FE not high? Note stack sizes. If he folds, he is still at the same stack size as the other short stack, with the other short stack hitting the blind first.

Well, if he was a thinking person, thats what HE SHOULD think.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's nice to have SOMETHING playable if you get called. 53o is not. THis is yet another case of being a pushbot with a stack. Unless done VERY judciously, this kind of play will be a long-run loser for you.

[/ QUOTE ] Why isn't this your run-of-the-mill bully with the big stack against the mid-stacks on the bubble? There is a smaller stack at the table. And really, he's not in that much trouble if he loses (though, of course, we know what happened in the second hand).

In other words, how could your cards change to make you push this? How could the stacks change to make you push this?