88 UTG+2, facing a raise - Page 2

locutus2002 · #11 06-22-2005, 02:14 PM

Here's why I push.

I make several aggressive assumptions.

1. limpers can't call (liberal)
2. Button is not bluffing (conservative)

Here is my range:

I think the raise is too small to be 99-JJ, even QQ.
I think villain most likely has AK, AQ , AA, KK, maybe QQ and maybe 10% bluff. Throw out bluff, to err on side of caution.

Hero is 45% in the hand and getting 1.7:1 in the pot. (pushing 720 to win 1220), or he has EV(873) in the pot if villain calls.

schwza · #12 06-22-2005, 02:59 PM

so you expect villain to raise more than 5x with 99-QQ. interesting.

locutus2002 · #13 06-22-2005, 03:24 PM

Yes,

I think 99-QQ either call, or try and win the pot right here with a big raise. The small raise is likely to bring 2 or more callers.

My best guess is that its AK, I'm trying to consider a wider range.

schwza · #14 06-22-2005, 03:25 PM

i've said it before....

this kind of pre-flop raise analysis is about as accurate as reading entrails.

durron597 · #15 06-22-2005, 03:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Man I dont like this limp. At this stage when stacks are a little shallow I'm bringing this in for a raise. The blinds are valuabe and you wont have a multiway pot enough. I like to limp when I will be able to call the standard 3-5xbb raise from another player and it will be for less than 10% of my stack. Raising and folding to a reraise, or calling the reraise, are both better off in my book.

-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]

What happens if you get an LP caller and the flop has overs?

With some ballpark math you get 1 over about 3/4 of the time and 2 overs approx half the time. Not to mention that with 1 caller the pot will be more than half your stack making it very tough to get away against one over and leave you crippled even if you do get away.

I like both folding and pushing better than raising 3BB. If the stacks are a little more shallow I just push preflop. Here I either limp/fold or just fold. But I'm not as good postflop as you are.

locutus2002 · #16 06-22-2005, 03:42 PM

Just because you say something doesn't make it true.

I've offered my analysis and my play. Show me your range.
Without sitting at the table and watching the dynamics I am assuming all players are proficient in betting to offer odds to prospective callers. IMO 99-QQ doesn't offer these odds to 3 limpers, and is consequently not in my range.

The value in my play comes from the fact that I am fairly confident that the other limpers will fold, which could also be incorrect.

I've given you my range and my play. Frankly I don't think 99,TT,JJ, or QQ raise this little if at all.

James Lang · #17 06-22-2005, 03:49 PM

I was trying to figure out whether or not he had a legitimate hand or not because he limped alot of hands. My initial thought was that he was trying to steal the pot with maybe AJ - AK, since he was sitting on the button with 3 limpers in front of him. Was I wrong to think this?

pineapple888 · #18 06-22-2005, 04:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I am assuming all players are proficient in betting to offer odds to prospective callers.

Frankly I don't think 99,TT,JJ, or QQ raise this little if at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, he raised 250 into a 225 pot. You can't tell a damn thing about his holding from that. I make that play with AA, with 72o on a steal, or with anything in between, and I'm going to put one toe out on a very short limb and say nearly all good players do the same.

To flip this around, if you are raising different amounts based on your holding in this type of situation, you are leaking information, and I would love to have you at my table.

pineapple888 · #19 06-22-2005, 04:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I was trying to figure out whether or not he had a legitimate hand or not because he limped alot of hands. My initial thought was that he was trying to steal the pot with maybe AJ - AK, since he was sitting on the button with 3 limpers in front of him. Was I wrong to think this?

[/ QUOTE ]

See my other post. You don't know what he has, and it's not worth even trying to figure it out. Your hand is simply too weak. Fold.

autobet · #20 06-22-2005, 04:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I was trying to figure out whether or not he had a legitimate hand or not because he limped alot of hands. My initial thought was that he was trying to steal the pot with maybe AJ - AK, since he was sitting on the button with 3 limpers in front of him. Was I wrong to think this?

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't consider someone raising with AK as trying to steal, and I would be opening with a raise.

I think the key here is this guy has been calling with far more hands than he has been raising with. So I would tend to fold here.