Poosh/call/what? situations, what would you do?

[deathpotato]

1. Push, and hope he calls with his J9

2. Fold, you still have 4.5BB left and can wait for a better spot

3. Stop and go (I've been having a lot of success doing this lately)

4. Fold, UTG raise represents strength and you aren't desperate for chips

5. Push, you have a strong hand and very few chips

6. Call, folding is completely ridiculous here

[chisness]

3 seems to be the only one that doesn't have a consensus. I don't think a stop 'n go here is an option because he cannot fold on the flop regardless of what it is.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
3. Stop and go (I've been having a lot of success doing this lately)

[/ QUOTE ]


The pot will be 1515 and button will only have to call 390. Can't really see it working here...

[deathpotato]

The fact that he shouldn't fold on the flop doesn't mean that he won't. I get folds very frequently doing this, and you're actually laying him less than 3:1 odds on the flop, so he'll be incorrect to call with overcards if he whiffs.

Edit: ^^ won't the pot be 1125? Button 525 SB 75 hero 525

[chisness]

i think its very unlikely he folds and if he does you miss out on some useful chips

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
Edit: ^^ won't the pot be 1125? Button 525 SB 75 hero 525

[/ QUOTE ]

Plus, hero's flop push of 390 = 1515

But the more I look at it, a stop-n-go could work here. I still fold pre-flop, but a stop-n-go is much better than pushing pre-flop. I shouldn't have dismissed it so quickly.

[deathpotato]

Hero's equity before hand: .1315
Hero's equity if we fold: .1124

Give button a fairly tight range of 22+, A2+, K9+, K7s+, QJ, QJs - hero is around 39.5% vs. this range

EV win = .2425
.395 * .2425 = .96 = EV push

Pushing pf is 0.8% of the prize pool worse than folding given this fairly tight range. Loosening the range shouldn't have much of an effect, though. This actually surprises me, I expected a push to be +$EV.

Stop and go:
Assume he calls 100% of the time he holds a pair, and 75% of the time he hits his overcards on the flop. Ignore the times anyone flops a set/2pair or hits a flush, or you draw out on someone after they draw out on you - it's late and I don't want to be doing this all night.

He has a pair almost exactly 20% of the time. His pair beats yours 2/3 of the time. Whoever is behind draws out ~8.5% of the time. So when he has a pair, your EV is:

1/3 * .915 * .2425 = .074 He has a lower pair
2/3 * .085 * .2425 = .014 He has a higher pair
.074 + .014 = .088 = EV when he holds a pair

He doesn't have a pair 80% of the time. 23.4% of the time he will hold a card lower than your 66. 17.3% of the time he will flop a pair to his high card, 17.3% of the time he will flop to his low card. When he flops to his low card, you win 80.0% of the time; when he flops a higher pair you win 8.6% of the time. He whiffs, for simplicity's sake, 65.4% of the time. When he calls with 1 overcard he will miss 87.5% of the time; with two overcards he will miss 75.9% of the time.

Your EV for when he holds a card lower than your 66 is:
.654 * .25 * .2008 = .033 He folds his overcard
.654 * .75 * .875 * .2425 = 0.104 He calls with 1 overcard
.173 * .80 * .2425 = .034 He calls with a lower pair
.173 * .086 * .2425 = .004 He calls with a higher pair
.033 + .104 + .034 + .004 = .175 = EV when he holds an unpaired card lower than 6

Your EV for when he holds two cards above 6 is:
.654 * .25 * .2008 = .033 He folds his overcards
.654 * .75 * .759 * .2425 = .090 He calls with his overcards (0.9/3 is less than your EV when he folds his overcards. This is interesting, as it shows that, from an ICM standpoint, you would actually rather have him fold the flop with two overcards - barely.)
.346 * .087 * .2425 = 0.007 He calls with a pair
.033 + .090 + .007 = 0.130 = EV when he holds two unpaired cards above 6

So, now that all that is done (it's 4AM and I'm sure I've made some mistakes, but this looks roughly right) we have:

20% of the time your EV is .088 (He holds a pair)
80% * .234 of the time your EV is .175 (He holds a card lower than 6)
80% * .766 of the time your EV is .130 (He holds two cards higher than 6)

.2 * .088 = .0176
.8 * .234 * .175 = .03276
.8 * .766 * .130 = .079664

.0176 + .03276 + .079664 = .130

Recall that your equity is .1124 if you fold. A stop and go given these assumptions is therefore better than folding preflop.

There's obviously some rounding in this math, and I've probably made an error or two, but I doubt they are very significant. You can argue with my 75% call figure, but from my experience (I have made similar plays quite a few times) this is quite realistic. Anyway, I'm exhausted, so I'm off to bed. Feel free to pick apart this math or my thinking if you're up to it. In the end, if button will occasionally fold the flop (you may not think anyone would, but I have seen people make this fold quite a lot), I think the stop and go is the right play here.

[deathpotato]

Of course, duh, silly me - good thing I stopped playing last night. I am still quite sure that button will fold sometimes on the flop, though.

[lastchance]

I really like stop and going here. Need to go to lunch, will add more later.

[deathpotato]

Bump - you're online and I'd like to get some discussion going again here.