I'm normally pretty good about my river value bets...

[NDHand]

I like the pre-flop play. Personally I like to bet on that board if the table is pretty loose. Even if BB raises, which is likely, you have good chances of getting many callers and if the odds warrant it, you can 3-bet for value. I like the check-raise on the turn but its a definite 4-bet + lead the river. If raised on the river I would call.

[ThisHo]

[ QUOTE ]
Here, I searched for you. He's not kidding when he says 100% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank You!!!
ThisHo

[Jake (The Snake)]

Is raising the flop correct here? MP3 is the only person you can possibly trap and, as was the case in the hand, it is possible that BB will raise him out anyway.

Going on only a flush draw and backdoor straight draw, Hero will win this hand only about 35-40% of the time. He needs both BB and MP3 to call to make this profitable, and it will only be slightly profitable when that happens. When BB raises and knocks out MP3, it makes the play -EV.

If Hero had 2 (or maybe even 1) overcard, or if there were more players, a raise would defenetely be correct. Based solely on equity though, this raise is incorrect. The only way this raise can be more profitable than a call is if it helps make up extra bets on the turn and river when hitting the draw. I don't think it does that. Also, since Hero is OOP, there is no free card chance.

Am I wrong?

[SpaceAce]

[ QUOTE ]
First, I don't even know why you completed with T4s, I'd just toss it, especially if the bb is that likely to raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeasy complete.

SpaceAce

[SpaceAce]

[ QUOTE ]

My checkraise is screaming "FLUSH! FLUSH! I GOT MY FLUSH!!" so when he 3-bets me the alarm bells go off.


[/ QUOTE ]

Your check-raise says no such thing and, even if it did, most opponents are not listening. Cap the turn and lead the river.

SpaceAce

[mdeck]

Yeah, that sounds reasonable. I felt disgusted after I played this hand, like I messed up something big. While I don't find myself in the situation that often, I've got a definite line for this type of scenario again.

Thanks for the advice all.