7 Stud: common mistakes made in basic starting hand situations

[SittingBull]

be making a major error in the face of the LIVE "A".
HOWEVER,if UR Oppo. REALLY has split "A",then continuing to play beyond 5th is USUALLY a Mathematical catastrophe. It will USUALLY cost U too much money to continue in this spot.
EVEN if UR OPPo doesn't have a PR of A's,with 3 more cards to come,he can readily pr on a subsequent Str.. Hence, I tend to agree with King. It's just too dangerous to contiune on 5th in this spot.
Let's say U folded the BEST hand and U would have won. So what! If U are not bluffed occasionally,than U will NOT be a long-term winner.
SittingBull

[SittingBull]

u are giving up too much. Even if several players remain with u,u still should raise one overcard because u most likely have the best hand on 3rd. U are NOW betting/raising for value.
Sure,against a large field,u will most likely lose about 70% of the time. But remember,poker is not about winning the MOST pots--it's about MAXIMIZING ur wins.
The 30% of the time that u do win will MORE than offset your loses.--giving u a GREATER long-term prfit than if ur OPPS would fold on U.
This concept was introduced by Mike Caro. For A's,he recommends NOT trying to knock out players on 3rd. His advice IS correct.
I proposed the following question on this forum once: if I were selective about my 3rd Str. hand against a large field that is playing random cards,will I be able to beat the game if all players continued to play to the river?
Well,RayZee thought I was joking when I proposed this question.
He implied that I would slaughter the game.
SittingBull

[Andy B]

Many players raise with hands other than big pairs. So should you. People become particularly inclined to raise when they have an Ace in the door. For my part, I might raise with a three-flush, a pocket pair, AKQ, or even less. The more likely it is that someone is raising with a hand other than Aces, and the higher the ante, the more inclined you should be to play your big pair. If the guy just has to have Aces in order to raise, yes, you throw those Kings in the muck. I can count the number of players I know who are that reliable on the fingers of one hand.

There is a section of 7CS4AP that talks about this kind of scenario. I think that they actually use a pair of Queens in their example, but it doesn't matter. Assuming that there's a decent chance that the Ace is raising light, they have you re-raising to get it heads-up. If he has Aces, it doesn't cost you that much. If he doesn't have Aces, failing to re-raise costs you quite a bit.

Let's say you're up against someone who has read 7CS4AP. You raise with your split Aces, and he raises with a Queen. Even if the other guy hasn't read 7CS4AP, even if he doesn't know how to read, I don't think most $10/20 players necessarily need to have pocket Aces or rolled-up trips to make this kind of a raise. If you routinely fold Aces in this kind of scenario, you're asking to get run over.

In your last scenario, it should seem likely to the guy with the Ace that the guy with the King is stealing. If he is solid, and even if he isn't, his range of re-stealing hands should be pretty broad. Folding split Kings to a re-raise in this spot would be about as weak-tight as you can get.

[King Yao]

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In your last scenario, it should seem likely to the guy with the Ace that the guy with the King is stealing. If he is solid, and even if he isn't, his range of re-stealing hands should be pretty broad. Folding split Kings to a re-raise in this spot would be about as weak-tight as you can get.

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In a different thread: Earlier Thread in response to my question

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What if you were the one with Queens, you completed the bet and get raised by a guy with an Ace showing.

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you wrote :

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If you're the guy with the Queens, you should probably be folding more often than most folks do, including myself.


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I'm trying to reconcile these two situatins - it seems to me its a position thing, in one it was a stealing position, in the other position wasn't identified.

Whereas in the Kings and Aces situation, its more likely the A showing thinks the K showing is stealing, thus its more likely a re-raise by the Ace is a re-steal?

On the other hand, in the Queens vs Aces situation, I didn't mention anything about position.

[King Yao]

If you have time, can you take a look at this post I made regarding the 1st situation? First Situation Conclusion, it doesn't matter if you fold or play

I concluded that it doesnt' matter if you play or fold in the first situation (you have split K's, an Ace raises two to the left of the bring-in). Are my assumptions on target?

[PoorLawyer]

what about when the Ace is simply on an ante steal with junk? I imagine at a game that high, there is often a raise from the highest card on the board as a steal attempt...

[Roland]

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I concluded that it doesnt' matter if you play or fold in the first situation (you have split K's, an Ace raises two to the left of the bring-in). Are my assumptions on target?

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I think it’s pretty funny you ended up with that 50% figure against this somewhat typical opponent – yep, stud hands run close in value. Note though that if you decide to play you’re not gambling with zero EV, since there is dead money in the pot.
Some more thoughts:
• Knowledge of your opponent is obviously the key here. If you have a good idea of what range of hands he could be raising with (considering the other up cards), you will know what to do with your kings
• One thing that can happen is that the ace folds on 4th or 5th street but you get to play heads-up against a weak player (I’ve found this happens quite frequently)
• If you sense he really has aces you can always fold if he makes an open pair but he can’t if you make one
• Some people can’t lay down aces even if you pair your door
• If you just call on 3rd, some people will keep betting into you with hands like a busted flush draw or a gutshot

On the other hand, it’s always risky to play, since he can always pair his ace later on (if he doesn’t have em). But poker is “a gambling game where your going to have to take a risk or two” (at least that’s what Mike says [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]).

[Andy B]

When the Ace raises in front of you, his range of possible hands should be fairly broad. When you raise in front of the Ace, he should realize that it is fairly likely that you have a real hand, and he should have you beaten in order to re-raise a larger percentage of the time. I don't know what the percentages are, but let's say that in the first scenario in the post you're reading right now, you're about 50% to have the best hand, and in the second scenario, you're about 25% to have the best hand. Those are just guesses, but that's why you continue in the first scenario but not the second.

Now someone who knows that you'll fold split Queens when he re-raises is going to re-raise fairly liberally, but since most folks get married to big pairs, he should be slow to draw this conclusion (don't ever show anyone that you're capable of making folds like this). If you do find yourself folding to this kind of re-raise a few times in a session, you should probably call next time to prevent people from running over you.

Hope that helped.

[Andy B]

I'm not sure where you pulled those numbers from. I'll just point out that while most people will raise split Aces or pocket Queens about every time, not everyone is going to raise with the three-flush or (JQ)A (especially with a King behind him) every time.

If you are 50% to have the best hand, you should probably continue just because there are the antes and bring-in to fight over. There is a problem in that you're not going to know if he hits his kicker, but you should have position on him throughout the hand unless you improve.

[King Yao]

I tried to adjust for that being a low possibility by stating that the raiser is a decent player, and two to the left of the bring-in - so he has 5 players behind him. Is that enough to assume he's unlikely to be trying to steal from the blinds (he's a decent player) from that position (5 players yet to act)? I thought so, but maybe not.