Flop decision: good or bad choice? Why? - Page 2

damaniac · #11 05-22-2005, 09:55 PM

With a gutshot, overcard, and bd flush draw getting 8:1 (it is 8:1 right?), folding this flop would be bad, I think, unless we felt that a reraise and cap were very very likely. At that point we're getting 20:4 on the whole street, if BB folds, which isn't very good, especially since our A outs can officially be discarded. Otherwise, we're getting a real good price on a fairly strong draw.

CallMeIshmael · #12 05-22-2005, 09:56 PM

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That's very sweet of you to say. I'm flattered.

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NH, sir.

damaniac · #13 05-22-2005, 09:58 PM

I should add that CDC or Nate tha Great (I get them mixed up for some reason) posted a similiar hand some months ago, although they had two overcards and the gutshot was to the nuts. Anyone want to try to dig that one up? I failed.

Derek132260 · #14 05-22-2005, 10:02 PM

I agree with the fact that we can't put SB on a made hand. Absent reads, you could put SB on AA, KK, AK, KQs, QQ-99. If SB were the only one we had to deal with, a raise would be automatic. But considering you're up against another player who raises the flop...you have to assume that ONE of them has a K or better, and the other one could very likely have your A beaten even if it on the turn or river. Given that, I'd say 4 times out of 5 you're drawing to a 3 or running clubs. And personally, I don't want to put in 3 bets (and possibly a fourth with a flop cap) only to have a non-club non-3 hit the turn and have to fold.

Just me, but even after reading replies, I'm folding.

bakku · #15 05-22-2005, 10:03 PM

A read on SB would be very crucial to my flop decision.

27offsooot · #16 05-22-2005, 10:19 PM

i like it.

RacersEdge · #17 05-22-2005, 10:21 PM

I'd say about 6 outs = 7-1 = 1/8 equity...

6 players = 1/6 is average...

not enough reason to raise imo....

rmarotti · #18 05-22-2005, 10:38 PM

I like it, which is a rare feeling for me to have after reading something you wrote. This is going to get you to a free river with a hand that has a decent # of outs against weak opponents. Nice hand.

damaniac · #19 05-23-2005, 12:09 AM

One: assuming those outs all made him good by the end (which isn't the case), his equity would be almost double that. For example, if you have a flush draw on the flop and will win when you hit it and not any other way, you have about 35% equity, same as your chance of making the flush by the river. However, your odds of hitting it on the next card are about 4:1.

Two: the raise wouldn't survive on straight-up equity. We want, among other things, a free card, a better A to fold (BB or SB might well oblige us), a 6 to fold (so there we don't get redrawn when we hit our straight). The real question is whether these things will happen frequently enough for this play to be good.

chesspain · #20 05-23-2005, 12:38 AM

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A read on SB would be very crucial to my flop decision.

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Actually, if I was allowed to have a read on only one opponent, I would much prefer to know more about MP1--such as: 1) Does his raise likely mean he has Kx, and 2) Will a three-bet tend to get me a free card?