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#12
05-22-2005, 06:49 AM
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Re: how do I evaluate someone elses stupidity?
[ QUOTE ]
"I'm positive this is a +chip ev move. " How could you know that? If you knew the +chip EV why not make the ICM analysis and tell us if the play was right or wrong? [/ QUOTE ] You rely way too much on numbers. Let it go. 
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#13
05-22-2005, 06:52 AM
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Re: how do I evaluate someone elses stupidity?
"You rely way too much on numbers. Let it go."
I dont understand how you could rely too much on numbers in a situation like this. You are all-in preflop, there are no decisions to be made, you dont have a specific read other than hand ranges etc... I dont see how this is different than calling a flush-draw. At the tables the intuitive solution is better, because you cant calculate it. Doing analysis this way seems worthless to me, however I (yet) do not know how to do the math for these problems, otherwise I would do it.
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#14
05-22-2005, 01:15 PM
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Re: how do I evaluate someone elses stupidity?
Personally, I think that this move is premature. You've got plenty of chips, just relax and play poker for a while. I really don't see how a 3BB raise from the button is necessarily a steal. You will get called here too often for this to be +EV IMO. More to the point though, is I would rather be the first one in raising than trying this after a raise and a call. Sometimes, you have to account for the "stupidity" of our opponents (which is usually great) and realize that they will call way more often than you think. I don't mean this as an insult, but sometimes I think that some people are too reluctant to just be patient and actually play poker. There is no need for this move with your chipstack and these blinds.
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#15
05-22-2005, 03:55 PM
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Re: how do I evaluate someone elses stupidity?
[ QUOTE ]
i think everyone on this thread is right.. maybe you were thinking he was trying to steal your blind with J9 oh wait he would have you beat maybe... you were thinking he was trying to steal with AJ -- oh wait he still has you beat. ok ok maybe you were thinking he was trying to steal with K9 such a bad hand right . ehhhh he still has you beat. [/ QUOTE ] Obviously I don't think that J8 is the best hand, I just read both players (see first post) as weak, especially since I would have expected this player to raise smaller if he wanted a call. [ QUOTE ] I dont understand how you could rely too much on numbers in a situation like this. You are all-in preflop, there are no decisions to be made, you dont have a specific read other than hand ranges etc... I dont see how this is different than calling a flush-draw. At the tables the intuitive solution is better, because you cant calculate it. [/ QUOTE ] you can't rely on numbers here because there are too many variables. You can't assign exact numbers to the % of the time that they will call and what hands they will call with. [ QUOTE ] Personally, I think that this move is premature. You've got plenty of chips, just relax and play poker for a while [/ QUOTE ] I don't see how this applys, If there are dead chips in the middle I am taking them regardless. The fact that this is the bubble and that I have time only means that I have to be more sure of my decision to make it. However, after reading everyones responses and looking back over the hand, I don't think that I was confident enough in this situation to make this play. 30 minutes at a table while multitabeling is not enough time to get a strong enough read on both players to make this move. In the future I believe that I would have to be almost positive that the button is weak and that the SB is loose enough to call here with a weak hand, tight enough to fold this hand to a push, and aggressive enough to raise a hand that he would want to be all in with. I obviously misevaluated the SB and paid for it. btw, how would you guys have played the SBs hand? Push because the button is afraid of getting busted on the bubble?
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#16
05-22-2005, 06:49 PM
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Re: how do I evaluate someone elses stupidity?
I think the chance you'll have to show down this hand isn't all that bad.
Button's 3x BB raise isn't quite a min-raise, and the for the level of the blinds, I don't think it shows the weakness you think it does. We're on the bubble, but that doesn't mean he is only going to be pushing unless he's weak to try to risk the whole tourney every other hand. There's still plenty of time in the tourney to extract a lot of value by getting people to call, not to fold. Playing QQ or AK or something super-hard just to steal the antes wouldn't be his best move here; enticing people in would be, so he could make more money. If you're up against a guy who is trying to get people to call, with a hand like J9o, you're in trouble. As to SB, he will have to call only 635 to get 1590 if button calls, and to get 1090 if not. He's a big stack, and might call with almost anything for those odds, and for the added bonus of knocking out a player and getting a nice stack boost if his hand wins. I think you're making reads and on that basis applying bubble play concepts here that are more in sync with play you see when the blinds are higher. That's probably because it's so unusual to be down to four people when the blinds are still this low, that you're just automatically applying your old game without adapting it.
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#17
05-22-2005, 06:58 PM
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Re: how do I evaluate someone elses stupidity?
he's getting the right odds ifhe puts you on 2 overs. If he wins then he's in the money and one person is short stacked. If he loses there's still a short stack there and he still has 27BB.
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#18
05-22-2005, 07:58 PM
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Re: how do I evaluate someone elses stupidity?
I am relatively new to posting on 2+2, but its moves like yours that I think help make SNGs profitable. Most people arent going to risk that many chips just to "steal" 75. Look at the blinds, this is a terrible move, you might be low stacked but not relative to the BB. You have so many hands you can wait for, I think there is only one persons stupidity here that needs evaluating.
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#19
05-22-2005, 08:31 PM
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Re: how do I evaluate someone elses stupidity?
[ QUOTE ]
I am relatively new to posting on 2+2, but its moves like yours that I think help make SNGs profitable. Most people arent going to risk that many chips just to "steal" 75. Look at the blinds, this is a terrible move, you might be low stacked but not relative to the BB. You have so many hands you can wait for, I think there is only one persons stupidity here that needs evaluating. [/ QUOTE ] please keep in mind that this is a $50 and the button is a solid player I think that part of this play was a little tilt inspired . I had just gotten back from a B&M casino and ended up down $500 at 5-10 NL after getting cold carded then misplaying a hand. lol, so I left because I was on tilt and played SnGs instead [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#20
05-23-2005, 02:01 AM
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Re: how do I evaluate someone elses stupidity?
Sorry for coming off harsh, I think you did sometime im guilty of far too often, and thats a) giving opponents too much credit and b) overthinking the situation. While your ideas on this hand are good and appear that you may have been right, I just prefer to wait till better hands when blinds are this low.
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