"I value call my nuts"

[AlmightyJay]

I don't like it, at all.

You have to raise the flop to protect your hand against flush draws. You probably have the best hand, but there could easily be someone drawing to a flush.

If you don't raise the flop, then raise the turn.

The river is okay if you think you'll get a bunch of overcalls.

[scotty34]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't mind going for overcalls on the river, but the turn simply must be raised. There's a lot of draws here that will happily pay 2BB to see the river.

[/ QUOTE ] I suppose I am overestimating the micro players slightly. I know 2 diamonds would call this in a second, but I didn't really stop and think about a 7, which would probably also call. A 4 or an 8 may call, but I doubt it.

However, what are the chances that any of these draws are actually out there? What are the chances that they are calling with a couple of overcards or a weak pair? That is what I based my decision on. It appears I could be wrong though.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like it, at all.

You have to raise the flop to protect your hand against flush draws. You probably have the best hand, but there could easily be someone drawing to a flush.

If you don't raise the flop, then raise the turn.

The river is okay if you think you'll get a bunch of overcalls.

[/ QUOTE ]
Reread the hand. Raising the flop would be nasty.

[scotty34]

The turn and river are debateable, but raising the flop is clearly wrong. I don't have a made hand. Micro players are not folding their flush draws on the flop even if it is for 2 bets. If they have a flush draw, I am drawing to 6 outs, not 8. If there is a flush draw and an 8 out there, I am drawing to 3 outs. Raising the flop will protect against an 8 (maybe), but my hand is far too marginal at this point to consider trying to protect.

[KaiShin]

[ QUOTE ]
You have to raise the flop to protect your hand against flush draws. You probably have the best hand, but there could easily be someone drawing to a flush.

[/ QUOTE ]
You can't protect your hand against flush draws. Remember, flush draws are your companion to the river.

Due to our position relative to the postflop aggressor, a raise would potentially blow out a lot of callers, reducing our implied odds significantly. If you get more distance between you and the aggressor, then I like to pump OESD's same as flush draws, but this is impossible in this situation.

[cmwck]

[ QUOTE ]


On the turn, If I raised, I would face the field with 4:1. No one is getting the correct odds to call...

[/ QUOTE ]

People haven't figured out yet that you need good odds to call with gutshots and overcards ; give them the chance to make a mistake by calling when they should fold. By not raising you are encouraging gutshots to play their hand correctly.

[Entity]

Raising the flop is retarded. The turn is interesting, but I'd probably raise here. Calling the river is correct, IMO.

Rob

[Shillx]

I would pop it up on 4th street. I'm not a big fan of plays like this since you want to give someone the chance to make a bad call with a hand like 98 or whatever. It is hard to get lots of value from loose players by just calling in these spots (although calling the river is fine here).

Brad

[lionhorse]

I'd raise the turn to see if UTG+1 has 78. If he reraises I'd call down.

[scotty34]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd raise the turn to see if UTG+1 has 78. If he reraises I'd call down.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he has 78, I cap and pay off. There is NO way that I would call down the second nuts just because I was raised. A reraise could be anything from an idiot overplaying top pair, to two pair, to a set. If you don't understand why I called on the river, its because with three players left behind me, I wanted to encourage the rest of the field to call, thus making a bigger pot for me to win. If I raised, chances are everyone would fold, and I might collect one extra BB from the original bettor.