3-way calling action on the bubble

[Gramps]

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Your call is really bad from a chipEV standpoint, and from a $EV standpoint it may be as bad a bubble play as you can make.

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I agree that chip EV it's definitely a clear loser, and it looks pretty fishy at first. But I think there's a lot of variables that $EV-wise makes it at least close, if not correct to call.

-I have the button covered (if I didn't, clear fold - having the button outchipped is everything), and he has to beat me and UTG both for me not to get at least 3rd right there. I believe K9s is better on average than UTG's hand, and while probably a dog to the button's range of hands, not a huge dog.

-If I fold and the button wins I'm somewhat up sh-t creek anyhow - I'm outchipped more than 2:1 by 3rd place and I only have 3.5 BB - it's not like I'm risking a whole lot by calling. If UTG beats the button, then I will get 3rd at absolute worst, whether I'm in the hand or not (my presence means if UTG wins, I get 3rd). So...I'm not putting a whole lot at risk by jumping in there.

-If I fold and UTG wins (okay, I'm in top-3 at least), I have 3.5 BB and am outchipped 3:1 by 2nd place, meaning I'll get 3rd the vast majority of the time anyhow. So...the times I call, UTG pigs the whole thing, and I am eliminated in 3rd...it's not like I was putting a great shot at 1st/2nd on the line...

-I think by me calling, the button wins the pot ~40% of the time (based on his supposed range of hands and UTG's supposed range of hands vs. K9s). So...I get 3rd at worst about 60% of the time, and a little over half that time I pig the whole friggin pot and have > 3,000 chips to battle for 1st/2nd. And once in a while in the 40% or so where the button wins, I'll beat UTG, still have ~600 chips and make a longshot comeback to get ITM (jacks up my $EV of calling just a smidge).

The benefit of folding is that if by calling I would have finished 4th (button beating me and UTG both), I still have some chips to try and crack the top-3. However, because now I'm such a short stack, I don't think I have a great chance at placing, so taking the safe route isn't some clear (or even likley) path to ITM.

that makes it a possible +$EV call IMO (though I'm having trouble finding anyone that agrees so far). Yada-yada.

As far as the button's calling standards, I see a lot of players (in the $215s) call with any Ace/pair/other assortment of cards here - they know they have to make a stand first, and a bullying UTG is a good player to do it against (wide range of hands, plus a blinds overlay here). Obviously, if he has a "real hand," he's calling with it, but I think the range isn't too narrow. Maybe not as wide as I'm assuming, but at least wider than a good pair/good Ace.

If you give the button any Ace, any pair, two suited cards ten or higher, KJo and KQo and UTG and random hand, K9s pigs the pot 1/3 of the time, with the button 42% and UTG 25%.

If you take K9s out of that mix, the button wins 62.5% of the time.

I think UTG is probably using some selection criteria, so 40%/30%/30% is probably closer to reality.

I've been listenting to too much Zeppelin again. Ramble on..er..over.

[Gramps]

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are u high?

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No. Drugs are bad, m'kay?

[Gramps]

If UTG knocks me out, that means he won the pot and the button has been knocked out too, which means I take my $400 for 3rd place since I had more chips than the button to start the hand (even if the button beat me once all the cards were out).

[valenzuela]

button has a good hand...button will most likely beat UTG.

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
button has a good hand...button will most likely beat UTG.

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And when the button wins, he will be in 3rd place with 2300 chips, and I'll be in 4th with 1050 and a not very good shot at ITM...so what great benefit is folding?

[Voltron87]

that is one of the worst calls i've ever seen.

[Gramps]

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that is one of the worst calls i've ever seen.

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Lol. I knew I would get flamed for posting this hand, but these replies are pleasantly exceeding my expectations. The flammability of what I'd argue is a close decision is why I posted it in the first place.

Calling in a 3-way pot on the bubble when you have another short stack outchipped (when it's right if you believe this K9s hand is flat out wrong) is often counterintuitive to begin with.

[Voltron87]

its not close.

[Bigwig]

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button has a good hand...button will most likely beat UTG.

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And when the button wins, he will be in 3rd place with 2300 chips, and I'll be in 4th with 1050 and a not very good shot at ITM...so what great benefit is folding?

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Gramps, that's not necessarily true. Button could win the hand, and UTG could beat you in the side pot. Which means you're gone. You're only staying in this tourney if you can beat UTG. And with the short stack all-in, you've got a chance to cash right here, with a fighting chance if you fold. Would you still call if the short stack had folded?

[Gramps]

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its not close.

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Care to give some detailed analysis? I have the button outchipped, so if he doesn't beat me and UTG both, he gets 4th. If I fold and button wins, I'm not in very good position anyhow. Etc...