Runner-runner flush.

[Schwartzy61]

I think a raise preflop here is a little out of line. It's borderline, certainly not automatic like you are making it out to be. Your goal should be to encourage the CO, Button, and Blinds to enter this pot as well. Raising might limit it to just you and the EP guys which isn't all bad but certainly diminishes your odds to win and the amount you can take off of 2nd best hands, depending on what hands these individuals will limp with in EP.

You also have to factor in the aggressiveness of the 4 players left to act. A raise on their part could mean a lot of your winning hands are trumped. With no reads, a raise doesn't seem like the right thing to do.

It's just not as automatic as you have made it to be.

[brazilio]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know! I just answered before reading others posts (like crunchcan (how do you spell it) told).

Then I read the posts and noticed that nobody else raised! Maybe I'm just ûber aggressive because I'm trying to get my aggression stats up.


[/ QUOTE ]

You're set to hit your draw 4.75:1. In a perfect world where your K high flush is going to take the pot every single time when the river hits you, you're STILL losing money on the turn because you're betting a draw that's going to hit a lesser percentage of the time than the percentage of money you're having to put in with every bet.
[ QUOTE ]

But is this so bad? Can you think that you might get a free showdown? No?
And if you hit that flush the extra money is already there.


[/ QUOTE ]
Taking a free showdown? Who cares? K high isn't dragging this pot 4-way. Bad thinking with that extra money thing. You bet draws when the percentage of money you're having to put in is smaller than the percentage of times your draw is going to hit.

[ QUOTE ]

Something must be wrong with my thinking....

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't a particularly good card to semi-bluff with anyway, it's not an obvious hit to the normal donks you see around, so whatever small equity you'd have to fold all 3 (minimal at best) becomes infinitesimal.

[brazilio]

The differences between players going against preflop raisers vs preflop limpers is significant. And KTs plays well multi-way almost entirely because it's a suited hand. Buying the button is also wonderful. Raising here is pretty much as automatic as you can get.

[therockofgibraltar]

Thanks!

And I'am a stupid cow! Man, I thought that I have pot equity edge with flush draw and three opponents. Never crossed my mind that the edge is on the flop (not in this hand but when you have a flush draw). I would have 33% chance and with three opponents, theoreticql 25% BUT on the turn and in this hand it ain't 33% but 20 % chance to hit that flush AND it ain't even to the nuts!

SO, I was trying to prove to myself this was good play according to pot equity but miscalculated BADLY.


Edit: bad grammar but hope you understand...

[brazilio]

Well, don't ever use the possibility of an overflush to make you not value bet a draw on the flop. I shouldn't have even mentioned that. The possibility of an overflush is remote. Around 2% of the time or so after 500 flushes is where I'm at. Not a large sample size, but large enough to estimate where it'll be. When you're value betting a flush draw, you should be playing an 8-high flush draw just as aggressively as an A-high.

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
PF-raise or fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand this.

[shadow29]

i raise here preflop
your post flop play is fine, yes
including the river

[homebrewer]

Not sure I'd 3 bet here. I may be seeing monsters but BB's play worries me. He's calling all streets then wakes up on the river. I'm thinking he's playing 92, 42, or Ax-spades. But, he did not cap the river. Maybe I'm giving him too much credit.

[Felipe]

BLINDPOST:

I think your two over cards can be treated as 1.5 each. Your BDFlushy is 1.5 alone. You've got 4.5 outs. You need a pot of 9.44:1 to call (a little less because you're still on the flop) 7:1 is close enough, i guess.

Is this a bad 3-bet on my part? I don't remember any reads i had at the time i played this hand a few days ago.

I think its good, only the Ace of spades can get you here, one card from the whole deck. You could be up against a full house, but I REALLY REALLY DOUBT IT. and If a full house takes the pot, thank him/her for never raising!


felipe

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
PF-raise or fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Limping is fine.

Folks, not everything in this world is raise or fold.

Folding KTs here preflop is terrible. Limping is ok. Raising is the best choice, but whatever.

Rob