AQs -- huge pot, what is the right line on the turn? - Page 2

FoodForThought · #11 04-14-2005, 10:58 PM

It's not 'Gambool' if the odds justify it.

cflynn · #12 04-14-2005, 11:02 PM

Thanks for the responses -- it was as I feared. It was fun to mash the raise button, though, if only for one hand. I'll be sure to claim the flop three beat and turn raise when i itemize deductions on my taxes tonight.

TheHip41 · #13 04-14-2005, 11:05 PM

I noticed your title says "right line on the turn"

I can't imagine how you even got to the turn.

You have nothing on the flop. It's bet and raised. Give it up, next hand.

adamstewart · #14 04-14-2005, 11:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I can't imagine how you even got to the turn.

You have nothing on the flop. It's bet and raised. Give it up, next hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not that simple. In fact, I'd argue that you're wrong here.

Adam

admiralfluff · #15 04-14-2005, 11:27 PM

I really don't see how a call on this flop is close. Both of your draws are backdoor, and you will often lose when you hit an ace. even if you give yourself a generous 3 outs, and a generous 15:1 on the flop, you barely have even odds to continue the hand.

You have to consider that with this much action on the flop, you will be putting multiple bets in on any turn. Do you really want to be betting and calling 2 more and 1 on the river when you spike an A? The problem with the backdoor draws is that you are losing more oon the big bet streets than you make. I would rather call this flop with a small pocket pair, where I have 2 outs to make a hand that will pick up a huge portion of the pot, and am getting big implied odds. Here you're getting a significant portion of your odds from the chance to pick up a draw that will come in 10% of the time.

adamstewart · #16 04-14-2005, 11:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
UTG+2 was the only preflop aggresser, so it's unlikely that the pot will get 3-bet behind you.

[/ QUOTE ]

... and I have no reason to believe that someone will raise the turn either.

Adam

admiralfluff · #17 04-14-2005, 11:54 PM

you're right. I just did some math, and assuming a 2bet flop, and a 1BB turn, you get at least .2BB in EV just by playing the bd straight and flush draws. If anyone would like me to put up the calculations I will, but it would be a little bit of a pain, so if no one minds taking my word for it I'll leave it at that.

Catch of the Day · #18 04-15-2005, 04:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
It's not 'Gambool' if the odds justify it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, and how does this apply to this situation?

Catch-

HajiShirazu · #19 04-15-2005, 06:34 AM

I would play it the same preflop, call the flop and call the turn.
All you have are weak backdoors and an ace that might be no good, and a queen that probably is no good. You lose a lot of money by putting in 3/4 bets instead of two, a lot more than you would in a situation where you actually had some sort of draw. Furthermore nobody who calls two cold with A9 preflop or A5 is going to fold on the flop for any number of bets in such a huge pot.
The turn raise is bad, why fold out the people who could pay you if you make your draw? Even if they all call it's -EV.

w_alloy · #20 04-15-2005, 06:34 AM

Call the flop. You're getting odds for your backdoor draws, i think 3 outs is a good estimate (maybe it would be closer to 2.8 but thats getting too exact on imperfect info).

Call the turn, unless you think there is a legit chance you can fold everyone out. As this is very likely not the case, you are losing ev because, as someone mentioned, you're 15-20% to win here and theres 4 people.