Is it correct to Call.

[Daliman]

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Pot 1500+1125+2925 = 5570. pot odds = 5570 to 1425.

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actually:
1500+1125+1425 = 4050:1425 = ~2.85:1

You can't win the rest of his stack. With almost 3:1 and just about no money left if you fold I think I have to call here with most anything. Pokerstove users... what is the cutoff for 2.85:1?

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Actually, he can call 2425 of it effectively, so it would be 1500+1125+2425=5050/1425.

Also, 2.85-1 is gret, but versus two players, it is considerably less attractive. I'm not positive to what extent, but I'd say on it's face at least 50% less valuable than Heads up.

[West]

Hey Daliman. I think the UTG player could and will easily hold worse than what you are suggesting - he's barely got enough to cover the big blind and it's either this hand or the next. I also think the player next to him, with just 5xBB could easily have worse than you are suggesting.

I havent crunched any numbers (other than the pot odds), or tried to check yours but your responses seem to only be considering whether the call is + or - chip EV for this hand. But this is a situation where a -EV call (if that's what it is) may be better EV than your prospects from folding, which may be lower EV still.

[Daliman]

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Hey Daliman. I think the UTG player could and will easily hold worse than what you are suggesting - he's barely got enough to cover the big blind and it's either this hand or the next. I also think the player next to him, with just 5xBB could easily have worse than you are suggesting.

I havent crunched any numbers (other than the pot odds), or tried to check yours but your responses seem to only be considering whether the call is + or - chip EV for this hand. But this is a situation where a -EV call (if that's what it is) may be better EV than your prospects from folding, which may be lower EV still.

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While I disagree with the holdings mostly of the second player in, as long as they are drawing live, about the only way Chip EV is positive here is if specifically no one has an ace or pair above 66, and even still, upside is pretty limited.

Of course, figuring your position later is a factor, but I don't know that this was being used as a factor in the initial case. It would tilt towards a call then, but several reasons factor against in my mind. I do, however, tend toward conservativism in these cases as I play SNG's for a living where ladder rungs are more defined and survival alone can be more profitable. I can see how MTT pros would say may as well get $$$ in there half-decent while there are chips in the pot to win.

[Paul Phillips]

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I intend to play in some WPT events, when I get a backer

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I intend to be the new drummer for U2, when they call me back.

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

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I intend to play in some WPT events, when I get a backer

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I intend to be the new drummer for U2, when they call me back.

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Does this mean Vince can't post in this thread anymore?

By the way, I intend to run for President of the United States, when I am nominated.

[Piers]

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You're getting over 3.5:1 on the call, and there's no reason to think you're against AA here, so it's an automatic call with any two cards.

Once you've already put 40% of your chips in as a blind, there's almost never a situation where it's correct to fold preflop. You're potstuck, so go for it, and hope you get there.


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I am not sure I agree. I make it that Vince needs his hand to stand approximately 1425/7425 = 19% of the time.

Give UTG any hands that beats a random hand, and UTG a top 12% hand. I think you will find hands like 92o struggling to make it (I got 18% on poker calculator). Any two suited certainly but I think you can ditch any weak non-suited non-connectors.

There are some other factors.

You have paid your big blind so it would be nice to see a whole circuit. It’s a tournament so your last few chips are priceless. The last 600 of the 7425 is heads up rather then three way. Don’t see why these taken together should make me more inclined to call.

Is the next bet your offered going to be a better one or not?

[West]

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You have paid your big blind so it would be nice to see a whole circuit. It’s a tournament so your last few chips are priceless. The last 600 of the 7425 is heads up rather then three way. Don’t see why these taken together should make me more inclined to call.

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If I am reading the problem correctly, the player UTG had a total of 1125 - he wasn't raising an additional 1125 to 2125. If that's the case than the side pot is 2600, main pot 3875. You only need to win the side pot to be better off than folding.

Let's say you have 27o, and let's say your opponents have 66 and KQs as in Daliman's example. I'm getting 27o winning the side pot vs. KQs roughly 30% of the time. 27o would beat both hands 17% of the time.

In this example your chip EV would be:

(17% x +5050) + 13% x (+1175) + (70% x -1425) = +13.75 - positive chip EV.

You then have to consider the fact that your stack will be:

17% of time: 6475
13% of time: 2600
70% of time: out

as opposed to 100% of time: 1425. And of course in all scenarios you are posting a SB of 500 on the next hand if you are still around.

[Vince Lepore]

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Pot 1500+1125+2925 = 5570. pot odds = 5570 to 1425.

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actually:
1500+1125+1425 = 4050:1425 = ~2.85:1

We were bot Wrong. You are not counting his 1k for the blind. Pot should be 5050

Vince

[smoore]

Ah, I reread the OP and understand now. I have to go broke here getting ~3.5:1. It may not be optimal but what happens if I fold my small and have < 1k left... push and get one caller during that orbit? I'd rather just stand up now than gamble later for the chance to have <2BB. I just can't play with less than one bet [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[curtains]

Even if this play is -EV (Which it often will be), it's also -EV to fold and put in over 1/3rd of your stack in the SB. Just doing the math and folding because you aren't getting the proper pot odds to call with your hand doesn't give you a magical answer as to what you should do.

If calling is only slightly -chip EV, then it's usually a very easy call here, as being dealt a random hand with over 1/3rd of your stack in preflop, is usually a lot more -EV.