AKs - All in on a draw... - Page 2

swolfe · #11 03-22-2005, 12:51 PM

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You should be even if his holding is favorable KK you make more CR all in and by him folding the overpair than by gambling on avg.

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i didn't think that this was true, but i figured it out below...and assuming my math isn't screwed up, the check-raise is definitely the better play.

pokenum -h ad kd - tc th -- 2d 3s 4d
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 3s 4d 2d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Kd 602 60.81 370 37.37 18 1.82 0.617
Tc Th 370 37.37 602 60.81 18 1.82 0.383

EV for getting it all in and gambling is
(net gain) $82 * 61.7% = +$50.59
(net loss) $77 * 38.3% = -$29.49
EV = +$21.10

EV for a check raise, assuming a pot sized bet from Villain, LP folds, and Villain folds to the check-raise 30% of the time:
fold: (net gain) $25 * 30% = +$7.5
call: (net gain) $21.10 * 70% = $14.77
EV: +$22.27

EV for a check raise, assuming a pot sized bet from Villain, LP folds, and Villain folds to the check-raise 60% of the time:
fold: (net gain) $25 * 60% = +$15
call: (net gain) $21.10 * 40% = +$8.44
EV = +$23.44

so the more he folds, the more EV i have.

i missed all 18 of my outs (twice) and Villain took it down with TT. i think he actually hit a set on the river too...oh well, unlucky. someone at the table mentioned that i gave Villain a "gift". they didn't realize that i was a huge favorite when the money went in.

jhall23 · #12 03-22-2005, 01:42 PM

Your calculations for the lead scenario look good assuming that your opponenet never folds to your lead and you always get it in on the flop when you bet.

If you don't think that's the case (which you probably couldn't assume at the time you are making the bet) then you would need to modify to take into account the times he will fold to your flop bet. It get's even more complicated because you would also need to take into account the times where he just calls you lead and have more decisions on the turn. Not quite as easy to calculate the EV of the lead as it is for the check-raise I think. It's probably safer to assume that opponent will bet out when checked to and you can get it all in on the flop. If you lead he could fold, call or raise.

Just wanted to point that out, I do think in general that the check-raise is the more EV move though given the opponents stack size.

schwza · #13 03-22-2005, 02:36 PM

no way you should fold on that flop w/ nut flush draw, gutshot and 2 overs.

JimmyJazz1 · #14 03-22-2005, 03:39 PM

Anyone else reraise pf here?That way you get a better read on the villians hand, and makes your decision easier on later streets.

swolfe · #15 03-22-2005, 03:46 PM

i don't really like making it an even bigger pot when i'm out of position. if i weren't closing the action i'd be more prone to re-raising, but since i am, i'd prefer to see the flop.

i am interested in seeing if anyone has a different viewpoint...

jimdmcevoy · #16 03-22-2005, 03:52 PM

i agree with what other people say, CR-all in, kinda like a hand i just played here:

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (10 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

MP2 ($89.35)
MP3 ($196.80)
CO ($258.45)
Button ($94.55)
SB ($183.75)
Hero ($435.30)
UTG ($139.50)
UTG+1 ($204.20)
UTG+2 ($29.50)
MP1 ($189.95)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG+1 calls $2, UTG+2 calls $2, 3 folds, CO calls $2, Button calls $2, 1 fold, Hero raises to $13, UTG+1 calls $11, UTG+2 folds, CO calls $11, Button calls $11.

Flop: ($55) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, CO checks, Button bets $55, Hero goes all-in for $422.30, UTG+1 folds, CO folds, Button calls.

Final Pot: $218.10

although this hand is a little different

does everyone like a check-raise here?

BobboFitos · #17 03-22-2005, 04:07 PM

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although this hand is a little different

does everyone like a check-raise here?

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Actually, no. this is a bad spot.

some considerations:

1. there are 2 other people to act before it gets back to button. they coould've been trapping a big hand (set) and now you're giving them money (or sklanaksy EV)
2. button is PCed to calling, so your FE is relatively small

I think leading out is actually superior here.

jimdmcevoy · #18 03-22-2005, 04:23 PM

If I lead out here and some one raises me, are you suggesting I fold? I don't see how I could get away from some one with a set. on the other hand if they want to slowplay a set I get a chance to catch a flush for free.

And I'm aware button is PCed to calling so I have practically 0 fold equity, but I think after button bets it's fold or move in time, as I'm pretty pretty pot commited after just a call.

BobboFitos · #19 03-22-2005, 04:26 PM

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If I lead out here and some one raises me, are you suggesting I fold?

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No

You should revert to "how do I play a big draw oop?" thinking... which generally is 3bet->allin (push it in)

[ QUOTE ]

I don't see how I could get away from some one with a set. on the other hand if they want to slowplay a set I get a chance to catch a flush for free.

[/ QUOTE ] Yeah, that is partially true.

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And I'm aware button is PCed to calling so I have practically 0 fold equity, but I think after button bets it's fold or move in time, as I'm pretty pretty pot commited after just a call.

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That is true, but I was under the impression before anyone made a flop bet you were sold on a flop check raise.

And I'm saying checking with the intention of raising is not as good as betting out.

jimdmcevoy · #20 03-22-2005, 04:38 PM

hmm...

if anyone has caught any piece of that board, i'm about a coin flip, so i'm looking for maximum fold equity. i figure if anyone has anything they might try to take a stab at it, and then i'll let them know I have AA/KK and they can fold now.

but if i lead out, how do i make money? if some one raises me they'll probably be pot committed, and it'l probaly be a coin flip

even worse what if i get flat called and the turn blanks? we'll have about one last pot-sized all in bet left, which is the worst scenario when you are drawing I reckon