check JJ in BB 1/2 Stars

[snapfc01]

do u bet out a board with an over pair when there were 4 limpers?

[snapfc01]

i play 1/2 thanks

[snapfc01]

i find it funny that no one can give me a reason for it yet....is this forum here to laugh at people who question what everyone does but doesn't see why?

[Bokonnon]

I believe there's just over a 50% chance of an overcard on the flop. That means there's nearly a 50% chance there won't be one. Also consider that when when there is an overcard, there's no gaurantee that it helps anyone. It's likely not to. You raise because you (very probably) have the best hand and the greatest likelihood of winning the pot. So want it to be as large as possible when you do win. In other words -- the raise isn't primarily to get anybody to fold. It's to get their money.

[snapfc01]

Are you serious that an overcard isn't likely to help someone when there are 4+limpers? i bet well over 75% of the time you're up against a AKQ between all 4+ players.

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
i don't see how this isn't debatable... what are the odds of the board having no overcard? Do you not agree that you get more of a pay off if you check and hit your set? what is raising doing? only building a pot which unless you hit a set or a lucky 10 high board is often not going to be yours. you will not get anyone to fold here. side note... i'm talking with 3+limpers... i agree with one or two limpers i'm raising... however with 4+ u have to expect QK and A to be out there. i want to hear more then this is +EV... why do u say that? what are your reasons for the raise...

i am not saying i'm right but i'm not going to agree with such a empty statement such as it's not debatable...

[/ QUOTE ]

uh you flop a board Thigh or lower about 35-40% of the time, combined with the 12.5% you flop a set, about half of the flops are favorable, you also will like plenty of single overcard flops(mainly Qhigh ones)

also you make more money on a set if the pot was raised preflop, it forces players to call bets on the flop and turn chasing, when you hold a major equity edge

[snapfc01]

thanks for some reasoning and numbers finally... i'm not sure i completely agree but i now have somethign to debate with myself about. do u bet out and call any flop with a single overcard? (if you stop with an A i understand that)

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
i find it funny that no one can give me a reason for it yet....is this forum here to laugh at people who question what everyone does but doesn't see why?

[/ QUOTE ]
Post a hand and post reads on the limpers. The scenario you've outlined is too vague to be answered definitively.

Let's assume the three limpers hold AT, K9, and QT, so that all of the overcards you fear are out there against you. Let's say the SB folds, so it's 4 handed. You, with JJ, against AT, K9, and QT.

This leaves 44 unknown cards, 9 of which hurt your hand. (3 of each: Q, K, A). The chance that the flop does not contain a Q, K, or an A is:

(35/44)(34/43)(33/42) x 100% = 49.4%

This is the worst case scenario. This assumes none of the overcards are duplicated in the limpers hands (ie AQ, KQ, and QT), and it assumes that any overcard hits a limper's hand 100% of the time. This is obviously retarded, as limpers will often have 97o, J8o, etc. This also doesn't take into account you flopping a set and raping and pillaging because a limper hit two pair, and it also doesn't take into account board like QT9 where you have an OESD and don't really care if someone hit a pair.

I'm done. Your fears are unwarranted, and you should raise JJ from the BB, because even if every overcard in the world is in play, you still flop well almost 50% of the time, and you're only putting in 1/4 of the bets preflop. I used like 9 commas in that sentence.

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
thanks for some reasoning and numbers finally... i'm not sure i completely agree but i now have somethign to debate with myself about. do u bet out and call any flop with a single overcard? (if you stop with an A i understand that)

[/ QUOTE ]

see your problem is you want setin stone rules to playby, well poker is a game with many variables, here's a basic point regardless of what you have if the pot is multiway you will win less often period, but the pots will be larger so its still worthwhile

AA vs anyhand is a 4/1 or greater favorite, AA vs 9random hands is about a 7/3 underdog to win the hand ... which situation do you want to be in, in a ring game??





....





alright if you said HU, you are wrong, granted you will lose the majority of the time you have AA 10handed, when it does win ~30% of the time, the pot will be much bigger that it was HU, also you only put in 10% of the bets but get a return of 30%, compared to putting in 50% of the bets, getting ~80%return .. it doesn't take long to see why 10handed is better

not this applys to all pairs, big suited broadway, even offsuit big broadway like AJo .. you win less hands, but more money

[snapfc01]

once again... thanks for a reply that has some ideas in it other then just RAISE b/c that's what you do