I'm pretty sure I'm behind to a bigger PP

[Twentysack]

I think that your right about the read being the key, but in general are Party players getting away from hand like AA or KK after a flop of T high?

[fimbulwinter]

[ QUOTE ]
you will lose to a higher set close to 20% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

this is not at all correct

fim

[maldini]

you'd really open raise from MP with 10s in a low limit game? you're gonna get 3ish callers depending on your image and almost certainly cannot buy positon here. i'm shocked by this line. i dont even open raise with JJ from MP in a low stakes game.

against good players yes, but party NLHE? you almost never like the flop and you're out of position. also, they'll call your flop bet with [censored] and now you really dont know where you are.

[soah]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you will lose to a higher set close to 20% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

this is not at all correct

fim

[/ QUOTE ]

Then please provide the exact figure for us.

~edit: I came up with about 16.47%, although it's certainly possible that I did something wrong. I expected something slightly higher. And although I didn't state it explicitly, you will also occassionally make a set and lose when four cards of the same suit come on the board.

~edit 2: I downloaded Pokerstove just so that I could get an exact answer to this. Results:

Board: Tc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 19.7045 % [ 00.19 00.00 ] { AA-JJ }
Hand 2: 80.2955 % [ 00.80 00.00 ] { TT }


Looks pretty close to 20% to me...

[TheWorstPlayer]

Includes losing to straight and flushes, but close enough. Also, people seem to use the rule of 10% of smallest stack, but I often flop a set just to find that the guy was raising with Q9o and folds at the first sight of aggression. The times I don't flop a set, I often still find myself folding to his Q9o on the AKx flop though, so I really prefer not to call raises from loose raisers preflop unless it is ~5% of smallest stack. Unless I think I can win a large number of pots when I don't hit a set, either because they will fire with overs unimproved too frequently or because they will fold big pairs too easily.

[fimbulwinter]

this is still very wrong.

-AK/AQ cannot flop a set.

-your results use a pair which completes the straight of the overcards, hence many of those losses will be to straights and flushes.

-when you lose to a straight or flush, you will (very) often be able to get away, where he can't get away from your set. you don't shove it in with TT on a AKT/TJQK or a three/fourflush board if you have a set and im assuming the plan isn't always to just make a massive shove at the pot with a set on the flop.


Math ain't my thing (why do you think i play NL?) but here goes:
I'd estimate the real number is something like 10-15%; think about it this way: AK flops an A or K maybe 1/3 times. that means 6 outs hits about 1/3 of the flops. your opponent has two outs to an overset and only two cards with which to do it (you need one to hit your set) so he'll overset you on the flop like 1/3(1/3)(2/3) -> ~7.5%. then he has two outs to an overset, which is about 8% of the remaining 92.5%. so .08(92.5) and 7.5% make about 15% if we're being generous.

heck, if we're worrying about such things, should he then worry about our redraw to quads? 85% is like AA vs 72o...



fim

[fimbulwinter]

Much of the above can be fixed by not making it a habit of always checking to the raiser and not autofolding a flop you dont hit.

a strong hand is not a prerequisite to betting and raising
fim

[TheWorstPlayer]

I agree. Which is why there are a lot more variables involved in determining whether a call is correct or not than just the stack sizes. But stack sizes are the thing that is most frequently quoted as the determining factor. Just wanted to point out that there are a lot of other things involved.

[soah]

AK/AQ do not fit into category of "bigger pp". And if those are in our opponent's range of hands then it just makes our implied odds even worse.

If you flop a set on a three-flushed board you're still going to get the money in because you know you're still a huge favorite.

Maybe you can get away from bottom set on AKT flops, but what about the KTx flops? Does he have AA or KK? You can't play it perfectly every time.

Even in a perfect world where you could always get away from set over set on the flop, your opponent will still spike that two-outer 10% of the time when all the money goes in on the flop. In the end you WILL LOSE MONEY calling off 10% of your stack preflop if you know you're up against a bigger pair. The amount that you win when you hit will be smaller than the amount that you lose when you miss plus the times you hit and still lose the pot. There's simply no way to get around that.

[joewatch]

I did these calculations manually:

These odds are given you have TT and opponent has AA-JJ

Odds of you flopping a set w/ TT = 12%
Odds that opponent flopping overset if you flopped a set = 8.4%
Odds of opponent and you flopping an overset = 9.6%
Odds of opponent setting on any street = 20%

Odds of you flopping a set and opponent setting on any street = 30%